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WON Tip WON Netherlands W 3-1 Poland W
N

Netherlands W

Home
L D W W D
5W 3D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
3-1
P
Poland W
Away
L L L L D
4W 2D 4L → Steady
Tuesday, 9th June 2026 Selection
1
Backing Netherlands W to win
Netherlands W 60%
Draw 20%
Poland W 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob87%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-39%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #F350DAC4
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 9 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Netherlands W to win
1.15
Over 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Netherlands W vs Poland W Competition: Euro WCQ Women Date: Tuesday, 9th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Netherlands W to win) Odds: 1.15 Confidence: 48% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Ticket #F350DAC4
Head to Head
Record
1
Netherlands W
2
Draws
1
Poland W
4
Meetings
2.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Netherlands W won 1 of the last 4 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Netherlands W
Metric
Poland W
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.7
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.6
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-3-2
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
50%
40%
3.3
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
N0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 5.7%
0-2 4.4%
0-3 2.3%
0-4 0.9%
0-5 0.3%
N1
1-0 6.5%
1-1 10.0%
1-2 7.8%
1-3 4.0%
1-4 1.6%
1-5 0.5%
N2
2-0 5.7%
2-1 8.8%
2-2 6.8%
2-3 3.5%
2-4 1.4%
2-5 0.4%
N3
3-0 3.3%
3-1 5.1%
3-2 4.0%
3-3 2.0%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.3%
N4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 2.2%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
N5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(8.8%) 1-0(6.5%) 2-0(5.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip N=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Netherlands W Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Poland W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Netherlands W
Overall
5.9
Scoring
6.3
Defence
5.3
Poland W
Overall
4.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
03.03.26WC
Poland W2
Netherlands2
24.10.25FI
Poland W0
Netherlands0
11.04.23FI
Netherlands W4
Poland1
04.03.19ALG
Netherlands W0
Poland1
Recent Form
Netherlands W
05.06.26WC
Ireland W3
Netherlands W2
L
18.04.26WC
France W1
Netherlands W1
D
14.04.26WC
Netherlands W2
France W1
W
07.03.26WC
Netherlands W2
Ireland W1
W
03.03.26WC
Poland W2
Netherlands W2
D
02.12.25FI
Netherlands W5
South Korea W0
W
28.11.25FI
Portugal W1
Netherlands W2
W
28.10.25FI
Netherlands W1
Canada W0
W
24.10.25FI
Poland W0
Netherlands W0
D
13.07.25EUR
Netherlands W2
France W5
L
Poland W
05.06.26WC
Poland W0
France W2
L
18.04.26WC
Ireland W1
Poland W0
L
14.04.26WC
Poland W2
Ireland W3
L
07.03.26WC
France W4
Poland W1
L
03.03.26WC
Poland W2
Netherlands W2
D
02.12.25FI
Poland W3
Latvia W0
W
28.11.25FI
Poland W1
Slovenia W0
W
28.10.25FI
Wales W2
Poland W5
W
24.10.25FI
Poland W0
Netherlands W0
D
12.07.25EUR
Poland W3
Denmark W2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Euro WCQ Women fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.15 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 9 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Netherlands W vs Poland W?
Our selection is 1 — Netherlands W to win, priced at approximately 1.15. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Netherlands W's current form?
Netherlands W have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Poland W been performing recently?
Poland W have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Netherlands W lead with 1 wins versus Poland W's 1, with 2 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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