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WON Tip WON Mbeya City 0-1 Simba
M

Mbeya City

Home
W L D L L
2W 3D 5L ▼ Declining
VS
0-1
S
Simba
Away
W W W W W
10W 1D 0L ▲ Improving
Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Selection
2
Backing Simba to win
Mbeya City 20%
Draw 30%
Simba 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob80.6%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-12.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #04E0D972
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 18 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Simba to win
1.24
Simba Clean Sheet55%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Mbeya City vs Simba Competition: Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara Date: Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Pick: 2 (Simba to win) Odds: 1.24 Confidence: 68% Also: Simba Clean Sheet (55%) Ticket #04E0D972
Head to Head
Record
1
Mbeya City
1
Draws
8
Simba
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Simba won 8 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Mbeya City
Metric
Simba
0.6
Goals For / Game
2.5
2
Goals Against / Game
0.5
30%
Clean Sheets
55%
2-3-5
W — D — L
10-1-0
Win Rate
20%
91%
2.9
Avg Goals
71%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
M0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 13.7%
0-2 15.4%
0-3 11.5%
0-4 6.5%
0-5 2.9%
M1
1-0 3.3%
1-1 7.5%
1-2 8.5%
1-3 6.4%
1-4 3.6%
1-5 1.6%
M2
2-0 0.9%
2-1 2.1%
2-2 2.3%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 1.0%
2-5 0.4%
M3
3-0 0.2%
3-1 0.4%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 0.0%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-2(15.4%) 0-1(13.7%) 0-3(11.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Mbeya City Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Simba Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Mbeya City
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
3.3
Simba
Overall
9.4
Scoring
8.5
Defence
8.2
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Home Win & BTTS No 9%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Away Win & BTTS No 40%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 6%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 43%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.12.25LKB
Simba3
Mbeya City0
13.04.25FAC
Simba3
Mbeya City1
18.01.23LKB
Simba3
Mbeya City2
23.11.22LKB
Mbeya City1
Simba1
16.06.22LKB
Simba3
Mbeya City0
17.01.22LKB
Mbeya City1
Simba0
22.06.21LKB
Simba4
Mbeya City1
13.12.20LKB
Mbeya City0
Simba1
24.06.20LKB
Mbeya City0
Simba2
03.11.19LKB
Simba4
Mbeya City0
Recent Form
Mbeya City
13.06.26LKB
Mbeya City1
Mtibwa Sugar0
W
26.05.26LKB
Singida Black Stars4
Mbeya City1
L
21.05.26LKB
Namungo1
Mbeya City1
D
13.05.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Coastal Union2
L
09.05.26LKB
JKT Tanzania1
Mbeya City0
L
04.05.26LKB
Tanzania Prisons1
Mbeya City2
W
30.04.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Mashujaa0
D
16.04.26LKB
Young Africans6
Mbeya City0
L
12.04.26FAC
Singida Black Stars5
Mbeya City1
L
09.04.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Azam0
D
Simba
14.06.26LKB
Simba2
Pamba1
W
24.05.26LKB
Simba1
Dodoma Jiji0
W
21.05.26LKB
Coastal Union1
Simba2
W
17.05.26FAC
Simba4
TRA United0
W
14.05.26LKB
Mashujaa0
Simba3
W
10.05.26LKB
Simba4
Tanzania Prisons0
W
06.05.26LKB
Simba1
JKT Tanzania0
W
03.05.26LKB
Simba2
Young Africans2
D
19.04.26LKB
Namungo1
Simba3
W
15.04.26LKB
Fountain Gate0
Simba3
W
12.04.26FAC
Simba3
Dodoma Jiji1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 2, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.24 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 18 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Mbeya City vs Simba?
Our selection is 2 — Simba to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Mbeya City's current form?
Mbeya City have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Simba been performing recently?
Simba have recorded 10 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 11 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Mbeya City lead with 1 wins versus Simba's 8, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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