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WON Tip WON Botofogo U20 1-0 Gremio U20
B

Botofogo U20

Home
W D W W W
7W 1D 2L → Steady
VS
1-0
G
Gremio U20
Away
L L D W L
2W 2D 6L ▼ Declining
Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Selection
1
Backing Botofogo U20 to win
Botofogo U20 50%
Draw 30%
Gremio U20 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob70.4%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-27.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #D6059E6E
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 18 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Botofogo U20 to win
1.42
Under 2.5 Goals80% BTTS — No80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Botofogo U20 vs Gremio U20 Competition: Brasileiro U20 Date: Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Botofogo U20 to win) Odds: 1.42 Confidence: 43% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: BTTS — No (80%) Ticket #D6059E6E
Head to Head
Record
0
Botofogo U20
5
Draws
2
Gremio U20
7
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
29%
BTTS
57%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Botofogo U20 won 0 of the last 7 meetings (5 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Botofogo U20
Metric
Gremio U20
0
Goals For / Game
1.1
0
Goals Against / Game
1.9
0%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-1-2
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
70%
20%
1.5
Avg Goals
35%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
20%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
B0
0-0 22.3%
0-1 12.3%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
B1
1-0 21.2%
1-1 11.7%
1-2 3.2%
1-3 0.6%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
B2
2-0 10.1%
2-1 5.5%
2-2 1.5%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
B3
3-0 3.2%
3-1 1.8%
3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(21.2%) 2-0(10.1%) 2-1(5.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip B=Home goals ↓   G=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Botofogo U20 Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Gremio U20 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Botofogo U20
Overall
7.3
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Gremio U20
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 54%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 54%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 4%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.07.25BRA
Botafogo U204
Gremio U200
04.04.24BRA
Botafogo U201
Gremio U202
27.06.21BRA
Gremio U200
Botafogo U202
26.09.20BRA
Gremio U200
Botafogo U200
11.09.19BRA
Gremio U203
Botafogo U200
06.09.17BRA
Gremio U200
Botafogo U201
30.08.17BRA
Botafogo U203
Gremio U201
Recent Form
Botofogo U20
10.06.26BRA
Botafogo U202
Criciuma U200
W
27.05.26BRA
Santos U201
Botafogo U201
D
21.05.26BRA
Athletico-PR U200
Botafogo U203
W
16.05.26BRA
Botafogo U203
Cruzeiro U201
W
13.05.26BRA
Botafogo U203
Flamengo RJ U201
W
06.05.26BRA
Juventude U200
Botafogo U203
W
29.04.26BRA
Vasco U201
Botafogo U200
L
26.04.26BRA
Botafogo U202
Fortaleza U201
W
22.04.26BRA
Botafogo U201
Bahia U200
W
14.04.26BRA
Cuiaba U203
Botafogo U201
L
Gremio U20
14.06.26GAU
Gremio U200
Internacional U201
L
10.06.26BRA
Gremio U200
Fluminense U203
L
05.06.26GAU
Gremio U200
Novo Hamburgo U200
D
31.05.26GAU
Novo Hamburgo U200
Gremio U201
W
27.05.26BRA
Cuiaba U202
Gremio U200
L
24.05.26GAU
Gremio U202
SC Ivoti U200
W
21.05.26BRA
RB Bragantino U205
Gremio U204
L
16.05.26BRA
Gremio U201
Avai U201
D
12.05.26BRA
Vitoria U202
Gremio U201
L
06.05.26BRA
Cruzeiro U205
Gremio U202
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Brasileiro U20 fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.42 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 18 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Botofogo U20 vs Gremio U20?
Our selection is 1 — Botofogo U20 to win, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 43%.
What is Botofogo U20's current form?
Botofogo U20 have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Gremio U20 been performing recently?
Gremio U20 have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Botofogo U20 lead with 0 wins versus Gremio U20's 2, with 5 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 29%.
⚠️
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