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LOST Tip LOST Portugal 1-1 D.R. Congo
P

Portugal

Home
W W W D W
7W 2D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
1-1
D
D.R. Congo
Away
L D W W L
5W 3D 2L ▲ Improving
Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Selection
1
Backing Portugal to win
Portugal 50%
Draw 30%
D.R. Congo 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.3%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-18.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #209177AF
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 18 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Portugal to win
1.31
D.R. Congo Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Portugal vs D.R. Congo Competition: World Cup 2026 Date: Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Portugal to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 58% Also: D.R. Congo Clean Sheet (60%) Ticket #209177AF
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Portugal
Metric
D.R. Congo
2.6
Goals For / Game
1.2
0.9
Goals Against / Game
0.5
40%
Clean Sheets
60%
7-2-1
W — D — L
5-3-2
Win Rate
70%
50%
2.6
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
P0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 7.8%
0-2 4.1%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 11.5%
1-1 12.1%
1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 8.9%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 4.6%
3-1 4.8%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 1.8%
4-1 1.9%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.5%) 2-1(9.4%) 2-0(8.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Portugal Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
D.R. Congo Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Portugal
Overall
7.6
Scoring
8.7
Defence
7.0
D.R. Congo
Overall
5.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
8.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Portugal
10.06.26FI
Portugal2
Nigeria1
W
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Portugal2
Chile1
W
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USA0
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D
16.11.25WC
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Portugal2
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D
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Portugal1
Ireland0
W
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Hungary2
Portugal3
W
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Portugal5
W
D.R. Congo
09.06.26FI
D.R. Congo1
Chile2
L
03.06.26FI
D.R. Congo0
Denmark0
D
31.03.26WC
D.R. Congo1
Jamaica0
W
25.03.26FI
D.R. Congo2
Bermuda0
W
06.01.26ACN
Algeria1
D.R. Congo0
L
30.12.25ACN
Botswana0
D.R. Congo3
W
27.12.25ACN
D.R. Congo1
Senegal1
D
23.12.25ACN
D.R. Congo1
Benin0
W
16.12.25FI
D.R. Congo2
Zambia0
W
16.11.25WC
D.R. Congo1
Nigeria (pen 4-3)1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this World Cup 2026 fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.31 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 18 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Portugal vs D.R. Congo?
Our selection is 1 — Portugal to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Portugal's current form?
Portugal have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has D.R. Congo been performing recently?
D.R. Congo have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game.
⚠️
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