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WON Tip WON El Gaish 1-0 Pharco
E

El Gaish

Home
L W D D L
4W 3D 3L ▲ Improving
VS
1-0
P
Pharco
Away
L D D L L
1W 4D 5L ▼ Declining
Monday, 18th May 2026 Selection
1X
Backing El Gaish to win or draw
Implied Prob87.7%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge+2.3%Value detected
Kelly %18.6%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #9BE2E770
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 19 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — El Gaish to win or draw
1.14
Under 2.5 Goals85% BTTS — No70% El Gaish Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
El Gaish vs Pharco Competition: Egypt Premier League Date: Monday, 18th May 2026 Pick: 1X (El Gaish to win or draw) Odds: 1.14 Confidence: 90% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: El Gaish Clean Sheet (60%) Ticket #9BE2E770
Head to Head
Record
4
El Gaish
6
Draws
0
Pharco
10
Meetings
1.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
10%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
El Gaish
Metric
Pharco
0.7
Goals For / Game
0.5
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1
60%
Clean Sheets
10%
4-3-3
W — D — L
1-4-5
Win Rate
40%
10%
1.4
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
E0
0-0 24.7%
0-1 13.6%
0-2 3.7%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
E1
1-0 21.0%
1-1 11.5%
1-2 3.2%
1-3 0.6%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
E2
2-0 8.9%
2-1 4.9%
2-2 1.4%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
E3
3-0 2.5%
3-1 1.4%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
E4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-0(24.7%) 1-0(21.0%) 1-1(11.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip E=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
El Gaish
Overall
4.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
8.0
Pharco
Overall
2.2
Scoring
1.7
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 33%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 29%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 7%
Home Win & Under 2.5 40%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 35%
Away Win & Over 2.5 2%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.01.26CUP
El Gaish1
Pharco0
19.08.25PL
Pharco0
El Gaish1
26.01.25PL
El Gaish0
Pharco0
12.12.24CUP
Pharco1
El Gaish1
20.07.24PL
El Gaish0
Pharco0
25.02.24PL
Pharco1
El Gaish1
26.01.24CUP
Pharco0
El Gaish1
16.05.23PL
El Gaish2
Pharco2
04.01.23PL
Pharco1
El Gaish1
28.07.22PL
Pharco0
El Gaish1
Recent Form
El Gaish
13.05.26PL
Al Ittihad1
El Gaish0
L
07.05.26PL
El Gaish1
Ghazl El Mahallah0
W
03.05.26PL
Haras El Hodood0
El Gaish0
D
29.04.26PL
Modern Sport0
El Gaish0
D
24.04.26PL
El Gaish1
Kahrabaa Ismailia2
L
18.04.26PL
Arab Contractors2
El Gaish0
L
13.04.26PL
El Gaish2
Petrojet0
W
09.04.26PL
El Gaish1
National Bank Egypt0
W
05.04.26PL
El Ismaily0
El Gaish0
D
29.03.26CUP
El Gaish2
Wadi Degla1
W
Pharco
12.05.26PL
Pharco0
Modern Sport1
L
08.05.26PL
Kahrabaa Ismailia0
Pharco0
D
04.05.26PL
Pharco1
Arab Contractors1
D
28.04.26PL
ZED1
Pharco0
L
24.04.26PL
Pharco0
El Gouna1
L
18.04.26PL
Petrojet1
Pharco0
L
13.04.26PL
Pharco2
Haras El Hodood1
W
08.04.26PL
Wadi Degla2
Pharco0
L
04.04.26PL
Pharco1
Ghazl El Mahallah1
D
22.03.26PL
Al Ittihad1
Pharco1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Egypt Premier League fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1X, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.14 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 19 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for El Gaish vs Pharco?
Our selection is 1X — El Gaish to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.14. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is El Gaish's current form?
El Gaish have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pharco been performing recently?
Pharco have recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
El Gaish lead with 4 wins versus Pharco's 0, with 6 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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