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LOST Tip LOST Kairat Almaty 1-1 Atyrau
K

Kairat Almaty

Home
L D W D W
4W 4D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
1-1
A
Atyrau
Away
D D D D W
3W 4D 3L ▲ Improving
Saturday, 13th June 2026 Selection
1
Backing Kairat Almaty to win
Kairat Almaty 50%
Draw 30%
Atyrau 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob78.7%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-31.7%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #25DB2837
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 14 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Kairat Almaty to win
1.27
Under 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Kairat Almaty vs Atyrau Competition: Kazakhstan Premier League Date: Saturday, 13th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Kairat Almaty to win) Odds: 1.27 Confidence: 47% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Ticket #25DB2837
Head to Head
Record
5
Kairat Almaty
3
Draws
2
Atyrau
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Neutral Kairat Almaty won 5 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kairat Almaty
Metric
Atyrau
1.3
Goals For / Game
1
1
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheets
50%
4-4-2
W — D — L
3-4-3
Win Rate
40%
30%
2
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
K0
0-0 13.5%
0-1 13.5%
0-2 6.8%
0-3 2.3%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.1%
K1
1-0 13.5%
1-1 13.5%
1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 6.8%
2-1 6.8%
2-2 3.4%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
K3
3-0 2.3%
3-1 2.3%
3-2 1.1%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
K4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.5%) 2-0(6.8%) 2-1(6.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip K=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kairat Almaty Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Atyrau Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Kairat Almaty
Overall
5.2
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.7
Atyrau
Overall
4.2
Scoring
3.3
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 18%
Draw & BTTS Yes 18%
Draw & BTTS No 18%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 23%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 18%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
16.04.25PL
Kairat Almaty4
Atyrau0
06.04.25PL
Atyrau1
Kairat Almaty4
10.11.24PL
Atyrau0
Kairat Almaty1
08.05.24CUP
Atyrau3
Kairat Almaty1
04.05.24PL
Kairat Almaty1
Atyrau0
29.10.23PL
Atyrau0
Kairat Almaty0
07.06.23CUP
Atyrau2
Kairat Almaty1
17.05.23CUP
Kairat Almaty1
Atyrau1
05.03.23PL
Kairat Almaty2
Atyrau2
09.10.22PL
Atyrau1
Kairat Almaty2
Recent Form
Kairat Almaty
28.05.26PL
Ordabasy2
Kairat Almaty1
L
23.05.26PL
Kairat Almaty0
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
D
17.05.26PL
Zhenis1
Kairat Almaty2
W
10.05.26PL
Ulytau1
Kairat Almaty1
D
06.05.26PL
Kaisar Kyzylorda1
Kairat Almaty2
W
02.05.26PL
Ertis Pavlodar0
Kairat Almaty1
W
29.04.26CUP
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Kairat Almaty1
L
26.04.26PL
Kairat Almaty2
Yelimay Semey2
D
18.04.26PL
Kairat Almaty2
Kaspij Aktau0
W
11.04.26PL
Tobol1
Kairat Almaty1
D
Atyrau
28.05.26PL
Atyrau1
Tobol1
D
23.05.26PL
Zhetysu Taldykorgan0
Atyrau0
D
17.05.26PL
Aktobe1
Atyrau1
D
09.05.26PL
Okzhetpes0
Atyrau0
D
03.05.26PL
Atyrau1
Altai0
W
29.04.26CUP
Atyrau0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan2
L
26.04.26PL
FC Astana2
Atyrau1
L
19.04.26PL
Atyrau0
Kyzylzhar1
L
11.04.26PL
Atyrau2
Kaisar Kyzylorda0
W
08.04.26CUP
Jas Qyran0
Atyrau4
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Kazakhstan Premier League fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.27 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 14 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kairat Almaty vs Atyrau?
Our selection is 1 — Kairat Almaty to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 47%.
What is Kairat Almaty's current form?
Kairat Almaty have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Atyrau been performing recently?
Atyrau have recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kairat Almaty lead with 5 wins versus Atyrau's 2, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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