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WON Tip WON Holbaek 1-0 Vejgaard
H

Holbaek

Home
W W W W W
10W 0D 0L → Steady
VS
1-0
V
Vejgaard
Away
W W L L L
3W 0D 7L ▼ Declining
Saturday, 13th June 2026 Selection
1
Backing Holbaek to win
Holbaek 50%
Draw 30%
Vejgaard 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob88.5%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-23.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #63C20956
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 14 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Holbaek to win
1.13
Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Holbaek vs Vejgaard Competition: Denmark 3 Division Date: Saturday, 13th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Holbaek to win) Odds: 1.13 Confidence: 65% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Also: BTTS — No (65%) Ticket #63C20956
Head to Head
Record
4
Holbaek
2
Draws
2
Vejgaard
8
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
63%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Neutral Holbaek won 4 of the last 8 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Holbaek
Metric
Vejgaard
3
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.9
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
10-0-0
W — D — L
3-0-7
Win Rate
100%
30%
3.2
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
H0
0-0 4.1%
0-1 3.1%
0-2 1.2%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
H1
1-0 10.0%
1-1 7.5%
1-2 2.8%
1-3 0.7%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
H2
2-0 12.2%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 3.4%
2-3 0.9%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
H3
3-0 10.0%
3-1 7.5%
3-2 2.8%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
H4
4-0 6.1%
4-1 4.6%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
H5
5-0 3.0%
5-1 2.3%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(12.2%) 1-0(10.0%) 3-0(10.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip H=Home goals ↓   V=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Holbaek Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Vejgaard Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Holbaek
Overall
10.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.7
Vejgaard
Overall
3.0
Scoring
2.7
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Home Win & BTTS No 50%
Draw & BTTS Yes 0%
Draw & BTTS No 0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 39%
Draw & Over 2.5 0%
Draw & Under 2.5 0%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.05.263D
Vejgaard0
Holbaek2
15.11.253D
Vejgaard3
Holbaek1
11.10.253D
Holbaek2
Vejgaard2
21.10.233D
Vejgaard2
Holbaek2
30.09.233D
Holbaek2
Vejgaard0
20.06.202DIV
Holbaek3
Vejgaard2
17.06.172DIV
Vejgaard2
Holbaek1
23.04.172DIV
Holbaek3
Vejgaard0
Recent Form
Holbaek
04.06.263D
Sundby1
Holbaek5
W
30.05.263D
Holbaek2
Lyseng1
W
23.05.263D
BK Frem1
Holbaek3
W
16.05.263D
Holbaek4
Odder2
W
09.05.263D
Vejgaard0
Holbaek2
W
02.05.263D
Holbaek2
Sundby0
W
25.04.263D
Holbaek4
BK Frem1
W
18.04.263D
Lyseng0
Holbaek2
W
11.04.263D
Odder1
Holbaek4
W
06.04.263D
Bronshoj0
Holbaek2
W
Vejgaard
05.06.263D
Vejgaard2
Lyseng0
W
30.05.263D
Vejgaard2
BK Frem0
W
22.05.263D
Odder2
Vejgaard0
L
16.05.263D
Vejgaard0
Sundby1
L
09.05.263D
Vejgaard0
Holbaek2
L
02.05.263D
Lyseng2
Vejgaard1
L
26.04.263D
Vejgaard3
Odder0
W
18.04.263D
BK Frem5
Vejgaard0
L
11.04.263D
Sundby2
Vejgaard0
L
06.04.263D
Nykobing5
Vejgaard0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Denmark 3 Division fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.13 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 14 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Holbaek vs Vejgaard?
Our selection is 1 — Holbaek to win, priced at approximately 1.13. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is Holbaek's current form?
Holbaek have won 10, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vejgaard been performing recently?
Vejgaard have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Holbaek lead with 4 wins versus Vejgaard's 2, with 2 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 63%.
⚠️
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