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LOST Tip LOST Pepo 1-1 Union Plaani
P

Pepo

Home
W L W W W
7W 2D 1L → Steady
VS
1-1
U
Union Plaani
Away
D L L L L
3W 1D 6L ▲ Improving
Saturday, 23rd May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Pepo to win
Pepo 60%
Draw 20%
Union Plaani 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob84.7%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-20.7%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #9D4F0688
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 23 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Pepo to win
1.18
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Pepo vs Union Plaani Competition: Finland Kakkonen A Date: Saturday, 23rd May 2026 Pick: 1 (Pepo to win) Odds: 1.18 Confidence: 64% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ticket #9D4F0688
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Pepo
Metric
Union Plaani
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.6
1
Goals Against / Game
2.9
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
7-2-1
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate
70%
30%
3.6
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
U0
U1
U2
U3
U4
U5
P0
0-0 2.9%
0-1 3.7%
0-2 2.4%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 6.5%
1-1 8.4%
1-2 5.5%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
P2
2-0 7.3%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 2.7%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
P3
3-0 5.5%
3-1 7.1%
3-2 4.6%
3-3 2.0%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
P4
4-0 3.1%
4-1 4.0%
4-2 2.6%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
P5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 1.8%
5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.5%) 2-0(7.3%) 3-1(7.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   U=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Pepo Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Union Plaani Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Pepo
Overall
7.6
Scoring
5.3
Defence
6.7
Union Plaani
Overall
3.3
Scoring
5.3
Defence
0.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 43%
Home Win & BTTS No 18%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 49%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Pepo
16.05.26KAK
Pui U1
PEPO2
W
12.05.26CUP
SJK3
PEPO0
L
09.05.26KAK
PEPO2
Kiffen1
W
02.05.26KAK
HPS1
PEPO2
W
28.04.26CUP
PEPO2
JJK Jyvaskyla1
W
25.04.26KAK
PEPO4
Atlantis1
W
17.04.26KAK
PPJ1
PEPO1
D
11.04.26CUP
NiemU0
PEPO1
W
21.03.26CF
PEPO2
Lahden Reipas1
W
31.01.26CF
Lahden Reipas0
PEPO0
D
Union Plaani
16.05.26KAK
Union Plaani2
PPJ2
D
08.05.26KAK
Atlantis5
Union Plaani1
L
02.05.26KAK
Union Plaani1
MyPa3
L
28.04.26CUP
Union Plaani2
Lahti4
L
25.04.26KAK
PuiU3
Union Plaani1
L
17.04.26KAK
HIFK5
Union Plaani1
L
07.04.26CUP
KyPa0
Union Plaani4
W
28.05.25CUP
Haka6
Union Plaani0
L
07.05.25CUP
Union Plaani2
Vaajakoski0
W
18.04.25CUP
KeuPa1
Union Plaani2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Finland Kakkonen A fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.18 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 23 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Pepo vs Union Plaani?
Our selection is 1 — Pepo to win, priced at approximately 1.18. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Pepo's current form?
Pepo have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Union Plaani been performing recently?
Union Plaani have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game.
⚠️
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