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LOST Tip LOST Lech Poznan 2-2 Wisla Plock
L

Lech Poznan

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W D W W W
7W 3D 0L ▲ Improving
VS
2-2
W
Wisla Plock
Away
L L L L W
4W 0D 6L → Steady
Saturday, 23rd May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Lech Poznan to win
Lech Poznan 50%
Draw 30%
Wisla Plock 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.9%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-17.9%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #4E399526
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 23 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
6
Lech Poznan
2
Draws
2
Wisla Plock
10
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Lech Poznan won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Lech Poznan
Metric
Wisla Plock
2.1
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.6
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-3-0
W — D — L
4-0-6
Win Rate
70%
40%
2.7
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
W0
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
L0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 5.7%
0-2 2.3%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
L1
1-0 13.1%
1-1 10.5%
1-2 4.2%
1-3 1.1%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
L2
2-0 12.1%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 3.9%
2-3 1.0%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
L3
3-0 7.5%
3-1 6.0%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 3.5%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.1%) 2-0(12.1%) 2-1(9.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   W=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Lech Poznan Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Wisla Plock Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Lech Poznan
Overall
7.9
Scoring
7.0
Defence
7.3
Wisla Plock
Overall
4.0
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 31%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 34%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 19%
Away Win & Under 2.5 13%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.11.25EKS
Wisla Plock0
Lech Poznan0
03.02.24CF
Lech Poznan4
Wisla Plock0
11.02.23EKS
Wisla Plock0
Lech Poznan1
31.07.22EKS
Lech Poznan1
Wisla Plock3
16.04.22EKS
Wisla Plock0
Lech Poznan1
22.10.21EKS
Lech Poznan4
Wisla Plock1
14.02.21EKS
Wisla Plock1
Lech Poznan0
30.08.20EKS
Lech Poznan2
Wisla Plock2
29.11.19EKS
Wisla Plock0
Lech Poznan2
26.07.19EKS
Lech Poznan4
Wisla Plock0
Recent Form
Lech Poznan
16.05.26EKS
Radomiak Radom1
Lech Poznan3
W
08.05.26EKS
Lech Poznan1
Arka Gdynia1
D
02.05.26EKS
Motor Lublin0
Lech Poznan1
W
26.04.26EKS
Lech Poznan4
Legia0
W
18.04.26EKS
Pogon Szczecin1
Lech Poznan2
W
12.04.26EKS
Lech Poznan3
GKS Katowice3
D
04.04.26EKS
Jagiellonia0
Lech Poznan0
D
22.03.26EKS
Lech Poznan4
Termalica B-B.1
W
19.03.26UECL
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Lech Poznan2
W
15.03.26EKS
Zaglebie0
Lech Poznan1
W
Wisla Plock
16.05.26EKS
Wisla Plock0
Gornik Zabrze1
L
10.05.26EKS
Wisla Plock0
Motor Lublin4
L
03.05.26EKS
Pogon Szczecin3
Wisla Plock0
L
26.04.26EKS
Wisla Plock0
Radomiak Radom1
L
19.04.26EKS
Termalica B-B.1
Wisla Plock3
W
10.04.26EKS
Wisla Plock1
Lechia Gdansk0
W
04.04.26EKS
GKS Katowice1
Wisla Plock0
L
21.03.26EKS
Jagiellonia1
Wisla Plock2
W
14.03.26EKS
Cracovia1
Wisla Plock2
W
09.03.26EKS
Wisla Plock0
Arka Gdynia3
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Poland Ekstraklasa fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.30 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 23 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock?
Our selection is 1 — Lech Poznan to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Lech Poznan's current form?
Lech Poznan have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Wisla Plock been performing recently?
Wisla Plock have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lech Poznan lead with 6 wins versus Wisla Plock's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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