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WON Tip WON Fratria 3-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
F

Fratria

Home
W D L D D
3W 5D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
3-0
P
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Away
W L D L D
2W 4D 4L ▲ Improving
Saturday, 23rd May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Fratria to win
Fratria 50%
Draw 30%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob81.3%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-47.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #97B78150
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 23 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
0
Fratria
2
Draws
1
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3
Meetings
0.3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Fratria won 0 of the last 3 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Fratria
Metric
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.1
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
3-5-2
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
30%
20%
2.6
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
F0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 8.5%
0-2 4.9%
0-3 1.9%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
F1
1-0 10.8%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 7.1%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
F2
2-0 7.8%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
F3
3-0 3.8%
3-1 4.3%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
F4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.8%) 2-1(9.0%) 2-0(7.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip F=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Fratria Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Pirin Blagoevgrad Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Fratria
Overall
4.5
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.3
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Overall
3.2
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 26%
Draw & BTTS No 21%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 16%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 24%
Draw & Under 2.5 24%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
21.11.252L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
Fratria0
15.02.252L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
Fratria0
03.08.242L
Fratria0
Pirin Blagoevgrad1
Recent Form
Fratria
15.05.262L
Belasitsa0
Fratria3
W
11.05.262L
Fratria2
Dunav Ruse2
D
04.05.262L
Vihren2
Fratria1
L
26.04.262L
Fratria2
CSKA Sofia II2
D
16.04.262L
Spartak Pleven1
Fratria1
D
09.04.262L
Fratria3
Lok. Gorna0
W
28.03.262L
Fratria3
Minyor Pernik1
W
23.03.262L
Yantra Gabrovo1
Fratria1
D
15.03.262L
Ludogorets II1
Fratria1
D
08.03.262L
Fratria1
Sevlievo4
L
Pirin Blagoevgrad
15.05.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad4
Sevlievo1
W
11.05.262L
Svoge2
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
L
02.05.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
Marek0
D
25.04.262L
Etar3
Pirin Blagoevgrad2
L
16.04.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad2
Hebar2
D
09.04.262L
Chernomorets 19192
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
L
04.04.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
Ludogorets II0
D
29.03.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad1
Belasitsa0
W
21.03.262L
Dunav Ruse0
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
D
15.03.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
Vihren1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Bulgaria Vtora Liga fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.23 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 23 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Fratria vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
Our selection is 1 — Fratria to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 34%.
What is Fratria's current form?
Fratria have won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pirin Blagoevgrad been performing recently?
Pirin Blagoevgrad have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Fratria lead with 0 wins versus Pirin Blagoevgrad's 1, with 2 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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