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WON Tip WON Lyon W 3-1 Montpellier W
L

Lyon W

Home
W D L W W
6W 2D 2L → Steady
VS
3-1
M
Montpellier W
Away
W L W L L
2W 2D 6L → Steady
Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Lyon W to win
Lyon W 60%
Draw 20%
Montpellier W 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob79.4%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-9.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #EE2E6829
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 7 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Lyon W to win
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Lyon W vs Montpellier W Competition: Premiere Ligue Women Date: Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Lyon W to win) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 70% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ticket #EE2E6829
Head to Head
Record
10
Lyon W
0
Draws
0
Montpellier W
10
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Lyon W won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Lyon W
Metric
Montpellier W
3
Goals For / Game
1
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.9
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
60%
20%
3.3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
L0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 3.1%
0-2 1.3%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
L1
1-0 9.0%
1-1 7.7%
1-2 3.3%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
L2
2-0 11.1%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.0%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
L3
3-0 9.0%
3-1 7.7%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 5.5%
4-1 4.7%
4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 2.7%
5-1 2.3%
5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(11.1%) 2-1(9.4%) 1-0(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Lyon W Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Montpellier W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Lyon W
Overall
6.6
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.7
Montpellier W
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
07.11.25PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon5
31.01.25PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon4
05.10.24PL
Lyon W4
Montpellier0
21.01.24PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon2
14.01.24COU
Lyon W4
Montpellier0
10.11.23PL
Lyon W5
Montpellier0
28.01.23COU
Lyon W2
Montpellier0
21.01.23PL
Lyon W2
Montpellier0
23.09.22PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon3
22.01.22PL
Montpellier W2
Lyon3
Recent Form
Lyon W
02.05.26CL
Lyon W3
Arsenal W1
W
29.04.26PL
Nantes W1
Lyon W1
D
26.04.26CL
Arsenal W2
Lyon W1
L
22.04.26PL
Lyon W4
Dijon W0
W
05.04.26COU
Strasbourg W0
Lyon W6
W
02.04.26CL
Lyon W4
Wolfsburg W0
W
28.03.26PL
Strasbourg W2
Lyon W2
D
24.03.26CL
Wolfsburg W1
Lyon W0
L
21.03.26PL
Fleury 91 W0
Lyon W2
W
18.03.26COU
Lyon W7
Le Havre W0
W
Montpellier W
25.04.26PL
Montpellier W1
St Etienne W0
W
22.04.26PL
Montpellier W0
Paris FC W2
L
28.03.26PL
Marseille W1
Montpellier W2
W
22.03.26PL
Montpellier W2
PSG W3
L
11.03.26PL
Lens W2
Montpellier W1
L
21.02.26PL
Nantes W2
Montpellier W2
D
07.02.26PL
Montpellier W1
Le Havre W2
L
31.01.26PL
Fleury 91 W1
Montpellier W0
L
24.01.26COU
PSG W5
Montpellier W0
L
17.01.26PL
Montpellier W1
Dijon W1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Premiere Ligue Women fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.26 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 7 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lyon W vs Montpellier W?
Our selection is 1 — Lyon W to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 70%.
What is Lyon W's current form?
Lyon W have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Montpellier W been performing recently?
Montpellier W have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lyon W lead with 10 wins versus Montpellier W's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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