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WON Tip WON Waterhouse 4-0 Dunbeholden
W

Waterhouse

Home
W L L W W
6W 1D 3L → Steady
VS
4-0
D
Dunbeholden
Away
L L W L D
5W 1D 4L ▲ Improving
Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Waterhouse to win
Waterhouse 50%
Draw 30%
Dunbeholden 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.9%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-26.9%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #1B7153D0
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 7 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
4
Waterhouse
4
Draws
2
Dunbeholden
10
Meetings
1.9
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Waterhouse won 4 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Waterhouse
Metric
Dunbeholden
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.2
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.4
40%
Clean Sheets
40%
6-1-3
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
60%
50%
2.6
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
W0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 7.8%
0-2 4.1%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
W1
1-0 11.5%
1-1 12.1%
1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
W2
2-0 8.9%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
W3
3-0 4.6%
3-1 4.8%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
W4
4-0 1.8%
4-1 1.9%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
W5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.5%) 2-1(9.4%) 2-0(8.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip W=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Waterhouse Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Dunbeholden Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Waterhouse
Overall
6.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
7.0
Dunbeholden
Overall
5.3
Scoring
4.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 19%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
08.02.26PL
Dunbeholden1
Waterhouse2
19.10.25PL
Waterhouse0
Dunbeholden0
04.05.25PL
Waterhouse2
Dunbeholden0
16.02.25PL
Dunbeholden1
Waterhouse0
08.12.24PL
Waterhouse3
Dunbeholden2
24.03.24PL
Waterhouse1
Dunbeholden0
27.12.23PL
Dunbeholden2
Waterhouse1
28.03.23PL
Waterhouse0
Dunbeholden0
28.12.22PL
Dunbeholden0
Waterhouse0
17.04.22PL
Dunbeholden2
Waterhouse2
Recent Form
Waterhouse
03.05.26PL
Waterhouse3
Chapelton0
W
28.04.26PL
Mount Pleasant2
Waterhouse1
L
24.04.26PL
Waterhouse1
Treasure Beach2
L
19.04.26PL
Harbour View0
Waterhouse1
W
16.04.26PL
Waterhouse1
Tivoli0
W
12.04.26PL
Racing United0
Waterhouse1
W
06.04.26PL
Waterhouse1
Arnett Gardens1
D
31.03.26PL
Waterhouse5
Spanish Town Police1
W
26.03.26PL
Portmore2
Waterhouse1
L
23.03.26PL
Waterhouse2
Cavalier1
W
Dunbeholden
03.05.26PL
Dunbeholden0
Mount Pleasant5
L
26.04.26PL
Treasure Beach1
Dunbeholden0
L
23.04.26PL
Dunbeholden4
Harbour View0
W
19.04.26PL
Tivoli2
Dunbeholden0
L
15.04.26PL
Racing United0
Dunbeholden0
D
12.04.26PL
Arnett Gardens1
Dunbeholden2
W
05.04.26PL
Spanish Town Police4
Dunbeholden1
L
29.03.26PL
Dunbeholden2
Portmore1
W
26.03.26PL
Cavalier0
Dunbeholden2
W
22.03.26PL
Dunbeholden1
Molynes0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Jamaica Premier League fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.30 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 7 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Waterhouse vs Dunbeholden?
Our selection is 1 — Waterhouse to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Waterhouse's current form?
Waterhouse have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Dunbeholden been performing recently?
Dunbeholden have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Waterhouse lead with 4 wins versus Dunbeholden's 2, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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