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WON Tip WON Simba 2-1 Pamba
S

Simba

Home
W W W W W
9W 1D 0L ▲ Improving
VS
2-1
P
Pamba
Away
L W L D L
2W 2D 6L ▼ Declining
Sunday, 14th June 2026 Selection
1
Backing Simba to win
Simba 60%
Draw 20%
Pamba 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob83.3%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-12.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #C40A8F40
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 15 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Simba to win
1.20
BTTS — No65% Simba Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Simba vs Pamba Competition: Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara Date: Sunday, 14th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Simba to win) Odds: 1.20 Confidence: 71% Also: BTTS — No (65%) Also: Simba Clean Sheet (60%) Ticket #C40A8F40
Head to Head
Record
2
Simba
1
Draws
0
Pamba
3
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Simba won 2 of the last 3 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Simba
Metric
Pamba
2.6
Goals For / Game
0.6
0.5
Goals Against / Game
1.5
60%
Clean Sheets
30%
9-1-0
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
90%
20%
2.6
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
S0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 4.1%
0-2 1.1%
0-3 0.2%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 15.2%
1-1 8.4%
1-2 2.3%
1-3 0.4%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 15.6%
2-1 8.6%
2-2 2.4%
2-3 0.4%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 10.7%
3-1 5.9%
3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 5.5%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 2.2%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(15.6%) 1-0(15.2%) 3-0(10.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Simba Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Pamba Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Simba
Overall
9.3
Scoring
8.7
Defence
8.3
Pamba
Overall
2.6
Scoring
2.0
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 47%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 43%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
19.03.26LKB
Pamba1
Simba1
08.05.25LKB
Simba5
Pamba1
22.11.24LKB
Pamba0
Simba1
Recent Form
Simba
24.05.26LKB
Simba1
Dodoma Jiji0
W
21.05.26LKB
Coastal Union1
Simba2
W
17.05.26FAC
Simba4
TRA United0
W
14.05.26LKB
Mashujaa0
Simba3
W
10.05.26LKB
Simba4
Tanzania Prisons0
W
06.05.26LKB
Simba1
JKT Tanzania0
W
03.05.26LKB
Simba2
Young Africans2
D
19.04.26LKB
Namungo1
Simba3
W
15.04.26LKB
Fountain Gate0
Simba3
W
12.04.26FAC
Simba3
Dodoma Jiji1
W
Pamba
26.05.26LKB
Pamba2
Tanzania Prisons3
L
20.05.26LKB
Kinondoni MC0
Pamba1
W
14.05.26LKB
Azam2
Pamba0
L
10.05.26LKB
Pamba0
Dodoma Jiji0
D
05.05.26LKB
Singida Black Stars3
Pamba1
L
30.04.26LKB
Fountain Gate1
Pamba2
W
17.04.26LKB
TRA United1
Pamba0
L
11.04.26FAC
Coastal Union2
Pamba0
L
08.04.26LKB
Pamba0
Young Africans3
L
04.04.26LKB
Mashujaa0
Pamba0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.20 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 15 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Simba vs Pamba?
Our selection is 1 — Simba to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 71%.
What is Simba's current form?
Simba have won 9, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pamba been performing recently?
Pamba have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Simba lead with 2 wins versus Pamba's 0, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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