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WON Tip WON Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 Obolon
S

Shakhtar Donetsk

Home
W L W L W
6W 2D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
3-1
O
Obolon
Away
D D L D L
1W 5D 4L ▲ Improving
Wednesday, 13th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Shakhtar Donetsk 50%
Draw 30%
Obolon 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob82.6%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-16.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #E29FE1BD
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 13 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Shakhtar Donetsk to win
1.21
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon Competition: Ukraine Premier League Date: Wednesday, 13th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Shakhtar Donetsk to win) Odds: 1.21 Confidence: 66% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ticket #E29FE1BD
Head to Head
Record
10
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
Obolon
10
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Shakhtar Donetsk won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Shakhtar Donetsk
Metric
Obolon
2.1
Goals For / Game
1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.8
30%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-2-2
W — D — L
1-5-4
Win Rate
60%
10%
3.1
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
O0
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
S0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
S1
1-0 9.2%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.1%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
S2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
S3
3-0 5.9%
3-1 6.4%
3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 2.9%
4-1 3.1%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.9%) 1-0(9.2%) 2-0(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   O=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Obolon Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Shakhtar Donetsk
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.0
Defence
6.0
Obolon
Overall
2.5
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 21%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 40%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 23%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 7%
Away Win & Under 2.5 3%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.11.25PL
Obolon0
Shakhtar Donetsk6
29.03.25PL
Obolon0
Shakhtar Donetsk2
23.09.24PL
Shakhtar Donetsk4
Obolon0
30.03.24PL
Obolon0
Shakhtar Donetsk3
16.09.23PL
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Obolon0
20.07.21CF
Shakhtar Donetsk5
Obolon0
27.05.20CF
Obolon0
Shakhtar Donetsk4
23.08.14CUP
Obolon0
Shakhtar Donetsk1
06.11.11PL
Obolon0
Shakhtar Donetsk2
10.07.11PL
Shakhtar Donetsk4
Obolon0
Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk
10.05.26PL
SC Poltava0
Shakhtar Donetsk4
W
07.05.26UECL
Crystal Palace2
Shakhtar Donetsk1
L
03.05.26PL
Dyn. Kyiv1
Shakhtar Donetsk2
W
30.04.26UECL
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Crystal Palace3
L
26.04.26PL
Kudrivka1
Shakhtar Donetsk3
W
23.04.26PL
FK Zorya Luhansk1
Shakhtar Donetsk2
W
20.04.26PL
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Polissya Zhytomyr0
W
16.04.26UECL
AZ Alkmaar2
Shakhtar Donetsk2
D
13.04.26PL
LNZ Cherkasy2
Shakhtar Donetsk2
D
09.04.26UECL
Shakhtar Donetsk3
AZ Alkmaar0
W
Obolon
09.05.26PL
Obolon2
Epitsentr2
D
03.05.26PL
Obolon1
Kudrivka1
D
26.04.26PL
Polissya Zhytomyr3
Obolon1
L
17.04.26PL
Obolon1
SC Poltava1
D
11.04.26PL
Veres-Rivne2
Obolon0
L
05.04.26PL
Obolon3
FK Zorya Luhansk3
D
22.03.26PL
Karpaty Lviv4
Obolon0
L
13.03.26PL
Dyn. Kyiv2
Obolon1
L
07.03.26PL
Obolon0
Kryvbas0
D
01.03.26PL
Obolon1
Rukh Lviv0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Ukraine Premier League fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.21 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 13 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Obolon?
Our selection is 1 — Shakhtar Donetsk to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is Shakhtar Donetsk's current form?
Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Obolon been performing recently?
Obolon have recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shakhtar Donetsk lead with 10 wins versus Obolon's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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