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WON Tip WON Hearts 3-0 Falkirk
H

Hearts

Home
D W W W D
6W 2D 2L ▲ Improving
VS
3-0
F
Falkirk
Away
L W L L L
4W 1D 5L ▲ Improving
Wednesday, 13th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Hearts to win
Hearts 50%
Draw 30%
Falkirk 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob70.4%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-12.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #2D103B14
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 13 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Hearts to win
1.42
BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Hearts vs Falkirk Competition: Scotland Premiership Date: Wednesday, 13th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Hearts to win) Odds: 1.42 Confidence: 58% Also: BTTS — Yes (70%) Ticket #2D103B14
Head to Head
Record
7
Hearts
0
Draws
3
Falkirk
10
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Hearts won 7 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Hearts
Metric
Falkirk
1.5
Goals For / Game
1.8
1.1
Goals Against / Game
2
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate
60%
40%
3.2
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
H0
0-0 4.1%
0-1 5.9%
0-2 4.3%
0-3 2.1%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
H1
1-0 7.1%
1-1 10.3%
1-2 7.5%
1-3 3.6%
1-4 1.3%
1-5 0.4%
H2
2-0 6.2%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 6.6%
2-3 3.2%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.3%
H3
3-0 3.6%
3-1 5.3%
3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
H4
4-0 1.6%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
H5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.1%) 1-0(7.1%) 2-0(6.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip H=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Hearts Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Falkirk Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Hearts
Overall
6.6
Scoring
5.0
Defence
6.3
Falkirk
Overall
4.3
Scoring
6.0
Defence
3.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
21.02.26PRE
Hearts1
Falkirk0
17.01.26SC
Hearts1
Falkirk (aet)2
13.12.25PRE
Falkirk0
Hearts2
27.09.25PRE
Hearts3
Falkirk0
17.08.24LC
Falkirk2
Hearts0
08.02.20SC
Falkirk0
Hearts1
21.03.15CHA
Falkirk0
Hearts3
24.01.15CHA
Hearts2
Falkirk3
15.11.14CHA
Falkirk1
Hearts2
30.08.14CHA
Hearts4
Falkirk1
Recent Form
Hearts
09.05.26PRE
Motherwell1
Hearts1
D
04.05.26PRE
Hearts2
Rangers1
W
26.04.26PRE
Hibernian1
Hearts2
W
11.04.26PRE
Hearts3
Motherwell1
W
05.04.26PRE
Livingston2
Hearts2
D
21.03.26PRE
Hearts1
Dundee FC0
W
14.03.26PRE
Kilmarnock1
Hearts0
L
28.02.26PRE
Hearts1
Aberdeen0
W
21.02.26PRE
Hearts1
Falkirk0
W
15.02.26PRE
Rangers4
Hearts2
L
Falkirk
09.05.26PRE
Falkirk1
Hibernian3
L
02.05.26PRE
Falkirk1
Motherwell0
W
25.04.26PRE
Celtic3
Falkirk1
L
18.04.26SC
Dunfermline1
Falkirk0
L
12.04.26PRE
Falkirk3
Rangers6
L
04.04.26PRE
Motherwell2
Falkirk3
W
21.03.26PRE
Falkirk1
St. Mirren2
L
14.03.26PRE
Aberdeen1
Falkirk1
D
06.03.26SC
Falkirk2
Dundee Utd1
W
28.02.26PRE
Falkirk5
Kilmarnock1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Scotland Premiership fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.42 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 13 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Hearts vs Falkirk?
Our selection is 1 — Hearts to win, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Hearts's current form?
Hearts have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Falkirk been performing recently?
Falkirk have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Hearts lead with 7 wins versus Falkirk's 3, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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