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WON Tip WON Pogradeci 3-0 Kastrioti
P

Pogradeci

Home
L D L W W
6W 2D 2L ▲ Improving
VS
3-0
K
Kastrioti
Away
W L L L L
2W 0D 8L ▼ Declining
Thursday, 7th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Pogradeci to win
Pogradeci 50%
Draw 30%
Kastrioti 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob75.2%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-25.2%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #8515CE52
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 7 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Pogradeci to win
1.33
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Pogradeci vs Kastrioti Competition: Albanian Abissnet Superiore Date: Thursday, 7th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Pogradeci to win) Odds: 1.33 Confidence: 50% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ticket #8515CE52
Head to Head
Record
4
Pogradeci
2
Draws
4
Kastrioti
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Pogradeci won 4 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Pogradeci
Metric
Kastrioti
2.4
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.1
Goals Against / Game
2.3
30%
Clean Sheets
0%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-0-8
Win Rate
60%
20%
3.6
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
P0
0-0 2.7%
0-1 3.4%
0-2 2.1%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 6.4%
1-1 8.0%
1-2 5.0%
1-3 2.1%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
P2
2-0 7.5%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
P3
3-0 5.9%
3-1 7.4%
3-2 4.6%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
P4
4-0 3.5%
4-1 4.3%
4-2 2.7%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
P5
5-0 1.6%
5-1 2.0%
5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.4%) 2-0(7.5%) 3-1(7.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   K=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Pogradeci Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Kastrioti Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Pogradeci
Overall
6.6
Scoring
8.0
Defence
6.3
Kastrioti
Overall
2.0
Scoring
4.7
Defence
2.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 47%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.04.26KP
Pogradeci5
Kastrioti1
24.01.26KP
Kastrioti2
Pogradeci4
25.10.25KP
Pogradeci4
Kastrioti0
23.02.25KP
Kastrioti0
Pogradeci0
09.11.24KP
Kastrioti2
Pogradeci0
24.08.24KP
Pogradeci3
Kastrioti1
12.02.12SL
Pogradeci1
Kastrioti1
12.09.11SL
Kastrioti4
Pogradeci0
04.02.09KP
Kastrioti1
Pogradeci0
31.08.08KP
Pogradeci0
Kastrioti1
Recent Form
Pogradeci
03.05.26KP
AF Luftetari3
Pogradeci0
L
25.04.26KP
Pogradeci1
Skenderbeu1
D
19.04.26KP
Laci2
Pogradeci0
L
11.04.26KP
Pogradeci5
Kukesi1
W
04.04.26KP
Pogradeci5
Kastrioti1
W
28.03.26CF
Struga0
Pogradeci0
D
22.03.26KP
Burreli0
Pogradeci3
W
18.03.26KP
Pogradeci3
Iliria Fushe-Kruje0
W
14.03.26KP
Besa Kavaje2
Pogradeci3
W
07.03.26KP
Pogradeci4
Korabi Peshkopi1
W
Kastrioti
03.05.26KP
Lushnja1
Kastrioti4
W
25.04.26KP
Kastrioti1
AF Luftetari2
L
19.04.26KP
Skenderbeu4
Kastrioti0
L
11.04.26KP
Kastrioti1
Laci2
L
04.04.26KP
Pogradeci5
Kastrioti1
L
22.03.26KP
Kastrioti0
Kukesi2
L
18.03.26KP
Kastrioti5
Burreli2
W
14.03.26KP
Iliria Fushe-Kruje1
Kastrioti0
L
07.03.26KP
Kastrioti2
Besa Kavaje3
L
28.02.26KP
Korabi Peshkopi1
Kastrioti0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Albanian Abissnet Superiore fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.33 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 7 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Pogradeci vs Kastrioti?
Our selection is 1 — Pogradeci to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Pogradeci's current form?
Pogradeci have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Kastrioti been performing recently?
Kastrioti have recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Pogradeci lead with 4 wins versus Kastrioti's 4, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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