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WON Tip WON Mostaganem 0-4 Saoura
M

Mostaganem

Home
L L W L L
1W 2D 7L → Steady
VS
0-4
S
Saoura
Away
W D W W W
6W 1D 3L ▲ Improving
Thursday, 7th May 2026 Selection
2
Backing Saoura to win
Mostaganem 20%
Draw 30%
Saoura 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob76.3%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-23.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #65A67A7A
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 7 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Saoura to win
1.31
BTTS — No70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Mostaganem vs Saoura Competition: Algeria Ligue 1 Date: Thursday, 7th May 2026 Pick: 2 (Saoura to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 53% Also: BTTS — No (70%) Ticket #65A67A7A
Head to Head
Record
1
Mostaganem
2
Draws
3
Saoura
6
Meetings
2.5
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral Saoura won 3 of 6 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Mostaganem
Metric
Saoura
0.6
Goals For / Game
1.2
2.6
Goals Against / Game
0.6
10%
Clean Sheets
50%
1-2-7
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate
10%
60%
2.5
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
M0
0-0 8.2%
0-1 15.6%
0-2 14.8%
0-3 9.4%
0-4 4.5%
0-5 1.7%
M1
1-0 4.9%
1-1 9.4%
1-2 8.9%
1-3 5.6%
1-4 2.7%
1-5 1.0%
M2
2-0 1.5%
2-1 2.8%
2-2 2.7%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.3%
M3
3-0 0.3%
3-1 0.6%
3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 0.0%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(15.6%) 0-2(14.8%) 0-3(9.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Mostaganem Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Saoura Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Mostaganem
Overall
1.6
Scoring
2.0
Defence
1.3
Saoura
Overall
6.3
Scoring
4.0
Defence
8.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 49%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 6%
Home Win & Under 2.5 6%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 35%
Away Win & Under 2.5 35%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
15.01.26CUP
Mostaganem0
Saoura2
20.12.25DIV
Saoura3
Mostaganem2
10.05.25DIV
Saoura0
Mostaganem0
23.11.24DIV
Mostaganem1
Saoura1
18.02.12L2
Mostaganem2
Saoura1
07.10.11L2
Saoura2
Mostaganem1
Recent Form
Mostaganem
10.04.26DIV
Mostaganem0
Khenchela3
L
05.04.26DIV
CR Belouizdad7
Mostaganem0
L
17.03.26DIV
Mostaganem3
Paradou2
W
13.03.26DIV
ASO Chlef1
Mostaganem0
L
07.03.26DIV
Mostaganem0
MC Alger5
L
28.02.26DIV
ES Setif3
Mostaganem0
L
21.02.26DIV
Mostaganem2
Kabylie2
D
14.02.26DIV
Rouisset1
Mostaganem0
L
07.02.26DIV
Mostaganem0
Oran0
D
03.02.26DIV
Constantine2
Mostaganem1
L
Saoura
17.04.26DIV
Saoura3
Khenchela0
W
11.04.26DIV
Paradou1
Saoura1
D
05.04.26DIV
Saoura2
MC Alger1
W
18.03.26DIV
Kabylie0
Saoura1
W
13.03.26DIV
Saoura2
Oran0
W
08.03.26DIV
Olympique Akbou1
Saoura0
L
04.03.26CUP
USM Alger1
Saoura0
L
27.02.26DIV
Saoura1
Ben Aknoun0
W
21.02.26DIV
Saoura1
USM Alger2
W
08.02.26DIV
ASO Chlef0
Saoura1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Algeria Ligue 1 fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 2, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.31 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 7 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Mostaganem vs Saoura?
Our selection is 2 — Saoura to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Mostaganem's current form?
Mostaganem have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Saoura been performing recently?
Saoura have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Mostaganem lead with 1 wins versus Saoura's 3, with 2 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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