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WON Tip WON Leuven W 3-2 Liege W
L

Leuven W

Home
W D D W D
6W 3D 1L → Steady
VS
3-2
L
Liege W
Away
D L D L D
2W 3D 5L ▼ Declining
Friday, 22nd May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Leuven W to win
Leuven W 50%
Draw 30%
Liege W 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob72.5%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-19.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #3F4BFB0D
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 22 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Leuven W to win
1.38
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Leuven W vs Liege W Competition: Belgium Women Super League Date: Friday, 22nd May 2026 Pick: 1 (Leuven W to win) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ticket #3F4BFB0D
Head to Head
Record
5
Leuven W
2
Draws
3
Liege W
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Neutral Leuven W won 5 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Leuven W
Metric
Liege W
1.5
Goals For / Game
1
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.5
30%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-3-1
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
60%
20%
2.5
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
L0
0-0 8.6%
0-1 8.2%
0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 12.9%
1-1 12.3%
1-2 5.8%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
L2
2-0 9.7%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 4.4%
2-3 1.4%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
L3
3-0 4.9%
3-1 4.6%
3-2 2.2%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 1.8%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(12.9%) 2-0(9.7%) 2-1(9.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Leuven W Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Liege W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Leuven W
Overall
6.9
Scoring
5.0
Defence
7.0
Liege W
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 33%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 16%
Draw & BTTS No 11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 25%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.04.26SL
St. Liege W1
Leuven1
21.02.26SL
St. Liege W1
Leuven2
20.12.25SL
Leuven W2
St. Liege1
03.10.25SL
St. Liege W1
Leuven3
10.05.25SL
St. Liege W1
Leuven0
12.04.25SL
Leuven W0
St. Liege3
29.03.25SL
Leuven W0
St. Liege0
15.02.25CUP
St. Liege W4
Leuven1
14.12.24SL
St. Liege W1
Leuven2
07.09.24SL
Leuven W2
St. Liege1
Recent Form
Leuven W
16.05.26SL
Club Brugge W0
Leuven W2
W
09.05.26SL
Leuven W1
RSC Anderlecht W1
D
02.05.26SL
RSC Anderlecht W1
Leuven W1
D
25.04.26SL
Leuven W2
Club Brugge W1
W
04.04.26SL
St. Liege W1
Leuven W1
D
21.03.26SL
RSC Anderlecht W0
Leuven W1
W
17.03.26SL
Leuven W2
Westerlo W0
W
14.03.26SL
Leuven W2
Club Brugge W1
W
21.02.26SL
St. Liege W1
Leuven W2
W
18.02.26CL
Arsenal W3
Leuven W1
L
Liege W
17.05.26SL
St. Liege W1
RSC Anderlecht W1
D
09.05.26SL
Club Brugge W2
St. Liege W1
L
02.05.26SL
St. Liege W2
Club Brugge W2
D
25.04.26SL
RSC Anderlecht W2
St. Liege W0
L
04.04.26SL
St. Liege W1
Leuven W1
D
21.03.26SL
Club Brugge W0
St. Liege W3
W
14.03.26SL
St. Liege W1
Waregem W0
W
21.02.26SL
St. Liege W1
Leuven W2
L
18.02.26SL
St. Liege W0
Genk W2
L
14.02.26SL
RSC Anderlecht W3
St. Liege W0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Belgium Women Super League fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.38 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 22 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Leuven W vs Liege W?
Our selection is 1 — Leuven W to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Leuven W's current form?
Leuven W have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Liege W been performing recently?
Liege W have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Leuven W lead with 5 wins versus Liege W's 3, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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