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LOST Tip LOST Lech Poznan 1-1 Arka Gdynia
L

Lech Poznan

Home
W W W D D
6W 2D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
1-1
A
Arka Gdynia
Away
L L D W L
3W 3D 4L → Steady
Friday, 8th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Lech Poznan to win
Lech Poznan 50%
Draw 20%
Arka Gdynia 30%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds3.33
Implied Prob70.9%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-22.9%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #7BFCDB10
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 8 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Lech Poznan to win
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia Competition: Poland Ekstraklasa Date: Friday, 8th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Lech Poznan to win) Odds: 1.41 Confidence: 48% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ticket #7BFCDB10
Head to Head
Record
3
Lech Poznan
3
Draws
4
Arka Gdynia
10
Meetings
1.7
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Lech Poznan won 3 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Lech Poznan
Metric
Arka Gdynia
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.9
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-2-2
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
60%
30%
3.2
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
L0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 5.4%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 8.1%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
L2
2-0 7.7%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
L3
3-0 4.9%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 2.3%
4-1 2.9%
4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
L5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.7%) 1-0(8.1%) 2-0(7.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Lech Poznan Win
50%
2
Draw
20%
5
Arka Gdynia Win
30%
3.33
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Lech Poznan
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.3
Arka Gdynia
Overall
3.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 21%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 42%
Home Win & Under 2.5 10%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.11.25EKS
Arka Gdynia3
Lech Poznan1
07.12.23CUP
Arka Gdynia0
Lech Poznan1
09.07.21CF
Lech Poznan0
Arka Gdynia2
19.12.19EKS
Lech Poznan1
Arka Gdynia1
17.08.19EKS
Arka Gdynia0
Lech Poznan0
03.03.19EKS
Lech Poznan1
Arka Gdynia0
21.09.18EKS
Arka Gdynia1
Lech Poznan0
11.02.18EKS
Arka Gdynia0
Lech Poznan0
27.08.17EKS
Lech Poznan3
Arka Gdynia0
02.05.17CUP
Lech Poznan1
Arka Gdynia2
Recent Form
Lech Poznan
02.05.26EKS
Motor Lublin0
Lech Poznan1
W
26.04.26EKS
Lech Poznan4
Legia0
W
18.04.26EKS
Pogon Szczecin1
Lech Poznan2
W
12.04.26EKS
Lech Poznan3
GKS Katowice3
D
04.04.26EKS
Jagiellonia0
Lech Poznan0
D
22.03.26EKS
Lech Poznan4
Termalica B-B.1
W
19.03.26UECL
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Lech Poznan2
W
15.03.26EKS
Zaglebie0
Lech Poznan1
W
12.03.26UECL
Lech Poznan1
Shakhtar Donetsk3
L
07.03.26EKS
Widzew Lodz2
Lech Poznan1
L
Arka Gdynia
27.04.26EKS
Piast Gliwice4
Arka Gdynia1
L
19.04.26EKS
Arka Gdynia0
Jagiellonia3
L
12.04.26EKS
Cracovia2
Arka Gdynia2
D
07.04.26EKS
Arka Gdynia3
Zaglebie1
W
22.03.26EKS
Korona Kielce3
Arka Gdynia0
L
15.03.26EKS
Arka Gdynia0
Widzew Lodz0
D
09.03.26EKS
Wisla Plock0
Arka Gdynia3
W
05.03.26EKS
Radomiak Radom3
Arka Gdynia1
L
27.02.26EKS
Arka Gdynia2
Lechia Gdansk2
D
22.02.26EKS
Arka Gdynia2
GKS Katowice1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Poland Ekstraklasa fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.41 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 8 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia?
Our selection is 1 — Lech Poznan to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Lech Poznan's current form?
Lech Poznan have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Arka Gdynia been performing recently?
Arka Gdynia have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lech Poznan lead with 3 wins versus Arka Gdynia's 4, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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