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LOST Tip LOST Aalborg 1-3 Middelfart
A

Aalborg

Home
D D W W W
4W 4D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
1-3
M
Middelfart
Away
L L L L L
0W 0D 10L → Steady
Friday, 8th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Aalborg to win
Aalborg 50%
Draw 30%
Middelfart 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob77.5%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-17.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #9203F49B
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 8 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Head to Head
Record
5
Aalborg
0
Draws
0
Middelfart
5
Meetings
3.8
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Aalborg won 5 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Aalborg
Metric
Middelfart
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.3
Goals Against / Game
3.2
10%
Clean Sheets
0%
4-4-2
W — D — L
0-0-10
Win Rate
40%
0%
3.5
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
A0
0-0 3.0%
0-1 3.0%
0-2 1.5%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 7.6%
1-1 7.6%
1-2 3.8%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 7.9%
3-1 7.9%
3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 4.9%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 2.5%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 2.5%
5-1 2.5%
5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(9.4%) 2-1(9.4%) 3-0(7.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Aalborg Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Middelfart Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Aalborg
Overall
5.2
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.7
Middelfart
Overall
0.0
Scoring
2.3
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 44%
Home Win & BTTS No 23%
Draw & BTTS Yes 21%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.04.261D
Middelfart2
Aalborg5
01.11.251D
Middelfart1
Aalborg2
14.09.251D
Aalborg4
Middelfart0
09.11.22CUP
Middelfart1
Aalborg2
20.09.17CUP
Middelfart0
Aalborg2
Recent Form
Aalborg
01.05.261D
Aalborg1
Hobro1
D
26.04.261D
Koge1
Aalborg1
D
23.04.261D
Aalborg3
B.932
W
18.04.261D
Aalborg3
Aarhus Fremad1
W
10.04.261D
Hobro0
Aalborg1
W
04.04.261D
Middelfart2
Aalborg5
W
21.03.261D
Aalborg1
Esbjerg1
D
14.03.261D
Hobro1
Aalborg0
L
06.03.261D
Aalborg0
Aarhus Fremad1
L
27.02.261D
Aalborg3
Hillerod3
D
Middelfart
01.05.261D
Middelfart0
Aarhus Fremad1
L
26.04.261D
B.932
Middelfart1
L
22.04.261D
Aarhus Fremad5
Middelfart1
L
18.04.261D
Middelfart0
Hobro6
L
10.04.261D
Koge2
Middelfart0
L
04.04.261D
Middelfart2
Aalborg5
L
21.03.261D
Middelfart0
Hobro1
L
13.03.261D
Lyngby4
Middelfart1
L
07.03.261D
Middelfart1
Hvidovre IF2
L
28.02.261D
Aarhus Fremad4
Middelfart1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Denmark 1 Division fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.29 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 8 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Aalborg vs Middelfart?
Our selection is 1 — Aalborg to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Aalborg's current form?
Aalborg have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Middelfart been performing recently?
Middelfart have recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 10 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Aalborg lead with 5 wins versus Middelfart's 0, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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