×
H

Herd

Home
W W W L W
5W 1D 4L ▼ Declining
VS
A
Aalesund 2
Away
L D L L L
0W 2D 8L → Steady
Tuesday, 26th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Herd to win
Herd 60%
Draw 20%
Aalesund 2 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob75.8%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-21.8%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #E97A99B8
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 26 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Herd to win
1.32
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Herd vs Aalesund 2 Competition: Norway Div 3 G2 Date: Tuesday, 26th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Herd to win) Odds: 1.32 Confidence: 54% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ticket #E97A99B8
Head to Head
Record
3
Herd
1
Draws
2
Aalesund 2
6
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
83%
Over 2.5
Neutral Herd won 3 of the last 6 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Herd
Metric
Aalesund 2
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.7
Goals Against / Game
3.4
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
5-1-4
W — D — L
0-2-8
Win Rate
50%
0%
4.2
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
H0
0-0 1.6%
0-1 2.4%
0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
H1
1-0 4.2%
1-1 6.3%
1-2 4.7%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.3%
H2
2-0 5.5%
2-1 8.3%
2-2 6.2%
2-3 3.1%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.4%
H3
3-0 4.9%
3-1 7.3%
3-2 5.5%
3-3 2.8%
3-4 1.0%
3-5 0.3%
H4
4-0 3.2%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 3.6%
4-3 1.8%
4-4 0.7%
4-5 0.2%
H5
5-0 1.7%
5-1 2.6%
5-2 1.9%
5-3 1.0%
5-4 0.4%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(8.3%) 3-1(7.3%) 2-0(5.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip H=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Herd Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Aalesund 2 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Herd
Overall
5.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
4.3
Aalesund 2
Overall
0.6
Scoring
4.3
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 50%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 62%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.09.19D3
Herd0
Aalesund 23
08.06.19D3
Aalesund 21
Herd2
07.10.17DIV
Aalesund 21
Herd4
26.06.17DIV
Herd3
Aalesund 21
01.08.11DIV
Herd1
Aalesund 21
11.04.11DIV
Aalesund 23
Herd0
Recent Form
Herd
16.05.26DIV
Volda TI0
Herd1
W
09.05.26DIV
Orkla1
Herd3
W
01.05.26DIV
Herd3
Byasen1
W
25.04.26DIV
Strindheim4
Herd2
L
19.04.26DIV
Herd3
Rosenborg 20
W
12.04.26DIV
Spjelkavik1
Herd3
W
07.04.26DIV
Herd3
Molde 23
D
24.05.23NMC
Herd1
Brattvag2
L
18.05.22NMC
Herd0
Molde2
L
24.07.21NMC
Herd0
Hodd3
L
Aalesund 2
14.05.26DIV
Aalesund 20
Molde 26
L
09.05.26DIV
Spjelkavik2
Aalesund 22
D
03.05.26DIV
Aalesund 22
Melhus3
L
24.04.26DIV
Rosenborg 25
Aalesund 20
L
19.04.26DIV
Nardo5
Aalesund 21
L
11.04.26DIV
Aalesund 23
FK Kvik4
L
06.04.26DIV
Volda TI4
Aalesund 23
L
25.10.25DIV
Kristiansund 21
Aalesund 21
D
19.10.25DIV
Aalesund 20
Trygg/Lade1
L
15.10.25DIV
Rosenborg 23
Aalesund 21
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Norway Div 3 G2 fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.32 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 26 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Herd vs Aalesund 2?
Our selection is 1 — Herd to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 54%.
What is Herd's current form?
Herd have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Aalesund 2 been performing recently?
Aalesund 2 have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Herd lead with 3 wins versus Aalesund 2's 2, with 1 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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