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WON Tip WON Grebbestad 4-3 Vanersborgs IF
G

Grebbestad

Home
W L W W W
6W 0D 4L ▲ Improving
VS
4-3
V
Vanersborgs IF
Away
D L L L L
1W 1D 8L ▼ Declining
Thursday, 18th June 2026 Selection
1
Backing Grebbestad to win
Grebbestad 50%
Draw 30%
Vanersborgs IF 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob69%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-18%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #C45530AF
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 19 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Grebbestad to win
1.45
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Grebbestad vs Vanersborgs IF Competition: Swe Div 2 Norra Gotaland Date: Thursday, 18th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Grebbestad to win) Odds: 1.45 Confidence: 51% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%) Ticket #C45530AF
Head to Head
Record
4
Grebbestad
2
Draws
3
Vanersborgs IF
9
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
56%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Neutral Grebbestad won 4 of the last 9 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Grebbestad
Metric
Vanersborgs IF
2
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.3
Goals Against / Game
3
30%
Clean Sheets
0%
6-0-4
W — D — L
1-1-8
Win Rate
60%
10%
3.6
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
G0
0-0 2.9%
0-1 3.0%
0-2 1.6%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
G1
1-0 7.2%
1-1 7.5%
1-2 4.0%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
G2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
G3
3-0 7.5%
3-1 7.9%
3-2 4.1%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
G4
4-0 4.7%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 2.6%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
G5
5-0 2.3%
5-1 2.5%
5-2 1.3%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.4%) 2-0(9.0%) 3-1(7.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip G=Home goals ↓   V=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Grebbestad Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Vanersborgs IF Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Grebbestad
Overall
6.0
Scoring
6.7
Defence
5.7
Vanersborgs IF
Overall
1.3
Scoring
2.7
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 44%
Home Win & BTTS No 36%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 64%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 3%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
16.08.25DIV
Vanersborgs IF1
Grebbestad1
23.05.25DIV
Grebbestad3
Vanersborgs IF0
04.10.24DIV
Vanersborgs IF2
Grebbestad0
20.06.24DIV
Grebbestad4
Vanersborgs IF0
14.08.20DIV
Grebbestad1
Vanersborgs IF4
28.09.19DIV
Vanersborgs IF1
Grebbestad3
20.06.19DIV
Grebbestad0
Vanersborgs IF0
08.09.17DIV
Vanersborgs IF2
Grebbestad1
24.05.17DIV
Grebbestad3
Vanersborgs IF1
Recent Form
Grebbestad
12.06.26DIV
IFK Skovde0
Grebbestad4
W
05.06.26DIV
Grebbestad1
Husqvarna2
L
29.05.26DIV
Vanersborgs FK2
Grebbestad3
W
23.05.26DIV
Grebbestad2
Motala0
W
14.05.26DIV
Lidkoping1
Grebbestad3
W
09.05.26DIV
Grebbestad0
Ahlafors IF2
L
01.05.26DIV
Skara3
Grebbestad1
L
25.04.26DIV
Grebbestad3
Tord0
W
18.04.26DIV
Grebbestad2
Herrestads AIF1
W
10.04.26DIV
Stenungsunds2
Grebbestad1
L
Vanersborgs IF
15.06.26DIV
Vanersborgs IF2
Herrestads AIF2
D
04.06.26DIV
Stenungsunds5
Vanersborgs IF0
L
31.05.26DIV
Motala2
Vanersborgs IF0
L
22.05.26DIV
Vanersborgs IF0
Husqvarna4
L
15.05.26DIV
IFK Skovde6
Vanersborgs IF2
L
08.05.26DIV
Vanersborgs IF0
Lidkoping1
L
01.05.26DIV
Vanersborgs FK1
Vanersborgs IF2
W
24.04.26DIV
Vanersborgs IF1
Skara2
L
18.04.26DIV
Ahlafors IF3
Vanersborgs IF0
L
11.04.26DIV
Vanersborgs IF1
Karlstad II4
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Swe Div 2 Norra Gotaland fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.45 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 19 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Grebbestad vs Vanersborgs IF?
Our selection is 1 — Grebbestad to win, priced at approximately 1.45. Tip confidence rating: 51%.
What is Grebbestad's current form?
Grebbestad have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vanersborgs IF been performing recently?
Vanersborgs IF have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Grebbestad lead with 4 wins versus Vanersborgs IF's 3, with 2 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 56%.
⚠️
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