×
WON Tip WON AC Oulu 2-1 Mariehamn
A

AC Oulu

Home
D W W W L
5W 1D 4L → Steady
VS
2-1
M
Mariehamn
Away
L L L L D
2W 2D 6L → Steady
Thursday, 18th June 2026 Selection
1
Backing AC Oulu to win
AC Oulu 50%
Draw 30%
Mariehamn 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob76.9%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-26.9%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #43152E20
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 19 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — AC Oulu to win
1.30
BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn Competition: Finland Veikkausliiga Date: Thursday, 18th June 2026 Pick: 1 (AC Oulu to win) Odds: 1.30 Confidence: 50% Also: BTTS — No (65%) Ticket #43152E20
Head to Head
Record
5
AC Oulu
1
Draws
4
Mariehamn
10
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Neutral AC Oulu won 5 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
AC Oulu
Metric
Mariehamn
1.1
Goals For / Game
0.7
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.3
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-1-4
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
50%
20%
2
Avg Goals
55%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
A0
0-0 13.5%
0-1 10.8%
0-2 4.3%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 16.2%
1-1 13.0%
1-2 5.2%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.0%
A2
2-0 9.7%
2-1 7.8%
2-2 3.1%
2-3 0.8%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
A3
3-0 3.9%
3-1 3.1%
3-2 1.3%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(16.2%) 2-0(9.7%) 2-1(7.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
AC Oulu Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Mariehamn Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
AC Oulu
Overall
5.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
7.0
Mariehamn
Overall
2.6
Scoring
2.3
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Home Win & BTTS No 38%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 35%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.10.25VEI
Mariehamn2
AC Oulu0
26.07.25VEI
Mariehamn0
AC Oulu1
17.05.25VEI
AC Oulu0
Mariehamn1
19.10.24VEI
AC Oulu1
Mariehamn2
01.09.24VEI
Mariehamn2
AC Oulu1
17.05.24VEI
AC Oulu1
Mariehamn1
16.09.23VEI
AC Oulu3
Mariehamn2
09.07.23VEI
Mariehamn1
AC Oulu2
03.06.23VEI
AC Oulu3
Mariehamn2
28.09.22VEI
Mariehamn2
AC Oulu4
Recent Form
AC Oulu
13.06.26VEI
Inter Turku0
AC Oulu0
D
31.05.26VEI
AC Oulu2
Jaro1
W
23.05.26VEI
SJK0
AC Oulu1
W
16.05.26VEI
AC Oulu1
TPS0
W
08.05.26VEI
Ilves1
AC Oulu0
L
02.05.26VEI
AC Oulu2
KuPS0
W
25.04.26VEI
Lahti2
AC Oulu1
L
22.04.26VEI
KuPS3
AC Oulu2
L
18.04.26VEI
AC Oulu1
VPS0
W
15.04.26CUP
AC Oulu1
Jaro2
L
Mariehamn
13.06.26VEI
Mariehamn0
Gnistan3
L
30.05.26VEI
HJK1
Mariehamn0
L
26.05.26CUP
Mariehamn0
Lahti1
L
23.05.26VEI
Jaro3
Mariehamn0
L
16.05.26VEI
Mariehamn1
KuPS1
D
13.05.26CUP
Mariehamn3
PuiU0
W
10.05.26VEI
Lahti1
Mariehamn1
D
02.05.26VEI
Mariehamn0
VPS1
L
28.04.26CUP
HPS1
Mariehamn2
W
25.04.26VEI
Inter Turku1
Mariehamn0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Finland Veikkausliiga fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.30 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 19 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our selection is 1 — AC Oulu to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is AC Oulu's current form?
AC Oulu have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mariehamn been performing recently?
Mariehamn have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
AC Oulu lead with 5 wins versus Mariehamn's 4, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. BettingProfessional1x2 provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.