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WON Tip WON Cruzeiro U20 3-2 Fortaleza U20
C

Cruzeiro U20

Home
W D W W D
6W 3D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
3-2
F
Fortaleza U20
Away
L L L W W
3W 2D 5L → Steady
Thursday, 11th June 2026 Selection
1
Backing Cruzeiro U20 to win
Cruzeiro U20 50%
Draw 30%
Fortaleza U20 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob69.4%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-7.4%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #A8BDBDD9
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 12 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Cruzeiro U20 to win
1.44
Over 1.5 Goals80% Cruzeiro U20 Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Cruzeiro U20 vs Fortaleza U20 Competition: Brasileiro U20 Date: Thursday, 11th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Cruzeiro U20 to win) Odds: 1.44 Confidence: 62% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: Cruzeiro U20 Clean Sheet (60%) Ticket #A8BDBDD9
Head to Head
Record
5
Cruzeiro U20
0
Draws
1
Fortaleza U20
6
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
83%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Cruzeiro U20 won 5 of the last 6 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Cruzeiro U20
Metric
Fortaleza U20
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.7
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.4
60%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-3-1
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
60%
30%
2.9
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
C0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 7.2%
0-2 4.7%
0-3 2.0%
0-4 0.7%
0-5 0.2%
C1
1-0 8.8%
1-1 11.4%
1-2 7.4%
1-3 3.2%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
C2
2-0 7.0%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.6%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
C3
3-0 3.8%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
C4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
C5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.2%) 1-0(8.8%) 2-0(7.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip C=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Cruzeiro U20 Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Fortaleza U20 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Cruzeiro U20
Overall
6.9
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.0
Fortaleza U20
Overall
3.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 23%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 16%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.03.25BRA
Cruzeiro U204
Fortaleza U201
12.09.24BRA
Cruzeiro U203
Fortaleza U200
24.04.24BRA
Cruzeiro U201
Fortaleza U200
26.04.23BRA
Cruzeiro U203
Fortaleza U200
23.07.22BRA
Fortaleza U202
Cruzeiro U201
27.06.21BRA
Cruzeiro U204
Fortaleza U200
Recent Form
Cruzeiro U20
06.06.26MIN
Uberabinha U200
Cruzeiro U201
W
30.05.26MIN
Cruzeiro U200
Villa Real U200
D
26.05.26BRA
Fluminense U200
Cruzeiro U202
W
23.05.26MIN
Cruzeiro U203
Boston City U200
W
20.05.26BRA
Cruzeiro U200
Vitoria U200
D
16.05.26BRA
Botafogo U203
Cruzeiro U201
L
13.05.26BRA
Sao Paulo U202
Cruzeiro U202
D
09.05.26MIN
Inter de Minas U200
Cruzeiro U201
W
06.05.26BRA
Cruzeiro U205
Gremio U202
W
02.05.26MIN
Cruzeiro U203
Atletico-MG U202
W
Fortaleza U20
27.05.26BRA
Fortaleza U201
Palmeiras U202
L
21.05.26BRA
Bahia U203
Fortaleza U202
L
16.05.26BRA
Fortaleza U201
Santos U202
L
13.05.26BRA
Criciuma U201
Fortaleza U202
W
09.05.26CEA
Fortaleza U205
Anjos do Ceu U200
W
05.05.26BRA
RB Bragantino U202
Fortaleza U200
L
30.04.26BRA
Fortaleza U201
Juventude U201
D
26.04.26BRA
Botafogo U202
Fortaleza U201
L
22.04.26BRA
Fortaleza U201
America MG U201
D
18.04.26CEA
Fortaleza U203
Horizonte U200
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Brasileiro U20 fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.44 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 12 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Cruzeiro U20 vs Fortaleza U20?
Our selection is 1 — Cruzeiro U20 to win, priced at approximately 1.44. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Cruzeiro U20's current form?
Cruzeiro U20 have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Fortaleza U20 been performing recently?
Fortaleza U20 have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Cruzeiro U20 lead with 5 wins versus Fortaleza U20's 1, with 0 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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