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WON Tip WON Honefoss 3-2 Stjordals Blink
H

Honefoss

Home
W W L W W
6W 2D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
3-2
S
Stjordals Blink
Away
L W L L L
4W 0D 6L ▲ Improving
Thursday, 14th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Honefoss to win
Honefoss 50%
Draw 30%
Stjordals Blink 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob74.6%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-8.6%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #DE542EBF
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 15 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Honefoss to win
1.34
Over 2.5 Goals85% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Honefoss vs Stjordals Blink Competition: Norway Division 2 G2 Date: Thursday, 14th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Honefoss to win) Odds: 1.34 Confidence: 66% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (85%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ticket #DE542EBF
Head to Head
Record
4
Honefoss
0
Draws
0
Stjordals Blink
4
Meetings
4.3
Avg Goals
75%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Honefoss won 4 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Honefoss
Metric
Stjordals Blink
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.5
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.8
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-2-2
W — D — L
4-0-6
Win Rate
60%
40%
3.4
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
H0
0-0 3.5%
0-1 4.7%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
H1
1-0 7.0%
1-1 9.5%
1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.9%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.3%
H2
2-0 7.0%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 2.9%
2-4 1.0%
2-5 0.3%
H3
3-0 4.7%
3-1 6.3%
3-2 4.3%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
H4
4-0 2.3%
4-1 3.2%
4-2 2.1%
4-3 1.0%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
H5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.3%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.5%) 1-0(7.0%) 2-0(7.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip H=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Honefoss Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Stjordals Blink Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Honefoss
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.3
Defence
6.0
Stjordals Blink
Overall
4.0
Scoring
5.0
Defence
4.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 47%
Home Win & Under 2.5 8%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 31%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.10.25DIV
Honefoss4
Stjordals Blink1
30.03.25DIV
Stjordals Blink0
Honefoss3
17.09.16DIV
Honefoss4
Stjordals Blink2
28.05.16DIV
Stjordals Blink1
Honefoss2
Recent Form
Honefoss
10.05.26DIV
Tromsdalen0
Honefoss3
W
03.05.26DIV
Honefoss3
Trygg/Lade1
W
26.04.26DIV
Honefoss0
Levanger1
L
18.04.26DIV
Ull/Kisa0
Honefoss3
W
12.04.26DIV
Honefoss2
Rana FK1
W
06.04.26DIV
Follo2
Honefoss2
D
27.03.26CF
Honefoss3
Notodden1
W
20.03.26CF
Stromsgodset3
Honefoss1
L
14.03.26OBS
Grorud1
Honefoss3
W
07.03.26OBS
Honefoss2
Skeid2
D
Stjordals Blink
09.05.26DIV
Stjordals Blink0
Skeid1
L
02.05.26DIV
Ull/Kisa2
Stjordals Blink3
W
25.04.26DIV
Stjordals Blink1
Follo2
L
19.04.26DIV
Eidsvold TF3
Stjordals Blink0
L
11.04.26DIV
Lorenskog2
Stjordals Blink1
L
06.04.26DIV
Stjordals Blink1
Levanger2
L
28.03.26CF
Stjordals Blink1
Trygg/Lade0
W
26.03.26CF
Rosenborg4
Stjordals Blink1
L
21.03.26CF
Stjordals Blink4
Brattvag0
W
14.03.26CF
Stjordals Blink3
Rana FK2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Norway Division 2 G2 fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.34 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 15 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Honefoss vs Stjordals Blink?
Our selection is 1 — Honefoss to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is Honefoss's current form?
Honefoss have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Stjordals Blink been performing recently?
Stjordals Blink have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Honefoss lead with 4 wins versus Stjordals Blink's 0, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 75%.
⚠️
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