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LOST Tip LOST FC Gomel 2-3 Baranovici
F

FC Gomel

Home
W D W W W
6W 2D 2L ▲ Improving
VS
2-3
B
Baranovici
Away
D D L L L
0W 3D 7L → Steady
Thursday, 14th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing FC Gomel to win
FC Gomel 50%
Draw 30%
Baranovici 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob72.5%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-6.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #26AB2777
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 15 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — FC Gomel to win
1.38
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
FC Gomel vs Baranovici Competition: Belarus Vysshaya Liga Date: Thursday, 14th May 2026 Pick: 1 (FC Gomel to win) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 66% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Ticket #26AB2777
Head to Head
Record
4
FC Gomel
0
Draws
0
Baranovici
4
Meetings
4.8
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip FC Gomel won 4 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
FC Gomel
Metric
Baranovici
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.6
0.9
Goals Against / Game
2.1
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-2-2
W — D — L
0-3-7
Win Rate
60%
0%
2.7
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
F0
0-0 6.7%
0-1 5.0%
0-2 1.9%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
F1
1-0 13.1%
1-1 9.8%
1-2 3.7%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
F2
2-0 12.8%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 3.6%
2-3 0.9%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
F3
3-0 8.3%
3-1 6.2%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
F4
4-0 4.1%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 1.6%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.1%) 2-0(12.8%) 2-1(9.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip F=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
FC Gomel Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Baranovici Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
FC Gomel
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.0
Baranovici
Overall
0.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
3.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 39%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 16%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 36%
Home Win & Under 2.5 36%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
10.09.16PL
Baranovici0
FC Gomel6
15.05.16PL
FC Gomel4
Baranovici1
14.08.10PL
FC Gomel5
Baranovici1
25.04.10PL
Baranovici0
FC Gomel2
Recent Form
FC Gomel
08.05.26VL
FC Gomel2
Isloch0
W
02.05.26VL
FC Gomel1
Zhodino1
D
26.04.26VL
Belshina0
FC Gomel2
W
19.04.26VL
FC Gomel3
Slavia Mozyr1
W
10.04.26VL
Naftan0
FC Gomel2
W
05.04.26VL
FC Minsk2
FC Gomel0
L
20.03.26VL
Vitebsk1
FC Gomel1
D
13.03.26CF
FC Gomel3
BumProm Gomel1
W
07.03.26CF
FC Gomel2
Iskra Smolensk1
W
28.02.26CF
FC Gomel4
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0
W
Baranovici
08.05.26VL
Baranovici1
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1
D
02.05.26VL
Dnepr Mogilev0
Baranovici0
D
25.04.26VL
Baranovici2
Din. Minsk3
L
18.04.26VL
Dynamo Brest3
Baranovici0
L
11.04.26VL
Baranovici0
ML Vitebsk4
L
05.04.26VL
BATE3
Baranovici0
L
22.03.26VL
Isloch2
Baranovici0
L
07.03.26CF
Neman0
Baranovici0
D
04.03.26CF
Baranovici1
Niva Dolbizno2
L
28.02.26CF
Din. Minsk3
Baranovici2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Belarus Vysshaya Liga fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.38 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 15 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FC Gomel vs Baranovici?
Our selection is 1 — FC Gomel to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is FC Gomel's current form?
FC Gomel have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Baranovici been performing recently?
Baranovici have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FC Gomel lead with 4 wins versus Baranovici's 0, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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