×
LOST Tip LOST Naestved 1-2 Hellerup
N

Naestved

Home
L W L D L
3W 4D 3L ▼ Declining
VS
1-2
H
Hellerup
Away
L L L L L
1W 0D 9L ▼ Declining
Wednesday, 13th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Naestved to win
Naestved 50%
Draw 30%
Hellerup 20%
H Fair Odds2
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob73%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-32%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #86E96D64
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 13 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Naestved to win
1.37
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Naestved vs Hellerup Competition: Denmark 2 Division Date: Wednesday, 13th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Naestved to win) Odds: 1.37 Confidence: 41% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Ticket #86E96D64
Head to Head
Record
4
Naestved
2
Draws
4
Hellerup
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Naestved won 4 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Naestved
Metric
Hellerup
0.9
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.3
Goals Against / Game
2.9
30%
Clean Sheets
0%
3-4-3
W — D — L
1-0-9
Win Rate
30%
10%
3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
H0
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
N0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
N1
1-0 9.9%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 5.5%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
N2
2-0 9.5%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
N3
3-0 6.0%
3-1 6.3%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
N4
4-0 2.8%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
N5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(9.9%) 2-1(9.9%) 2-0(9.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip N=Home goals ↓   H=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Naestved Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Hellerup Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Naestved
Overall
4.2
Scoring
3.0
Defence
5.7
Hellerup
Overall
1.0
Scoring
2.7
Defence
0.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 20%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 23%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
01.05.262D
Hellerup1
Naestved2
06.04.262D
Naestved2
Hellerup1
08.08.252D
Hellerup2
Naestved1
28.02.25CF
Hellerup3
Naestved0
25.10.242D
Hellerup1
Naestved0
25.08.242D
Naestved0
Hellerup3
29.05.222D
Naestved2
Hellerup2
18.04.222D
Hellerup1
Naestved2
20.03.222D
Naestved4
Hellerup3
21.08.212D
Hellerup2
Naestved2
Recent Form
Naestved
09.05.262D
Naestved1
Vendsyssel3
L
01.05.262D
Hellerup1
Naestved2
W
24.04.262D
AB Copenhagen3
Naestved0
L
17.04.262D
Naestved0
Roskilde0
D
11.04.262D
Thisted FC2
Naestved0
L
06.04.262D
Naestved2
Hellerup1
W
02.04.262D
Roskilde2
Naestved3
W
29.03.262D
Naestved0
Brabrand0
D
21.03.262D
Skive0
Naestved0
D
15.03.262D
Naestved1
Vendsyssel1
D
Hellerup
08.05.262D
Hellerup1
Roskilde2
L
01.05.262D
Hellerup1
Naestved2
L
26.04.262D
Vendsyssel4
Hellerup1
L
19.04.262D
Thisted FC4
Hellerup0
L
10.04.262D
Hellerup1
AB Copenhagen5
L
06.04.262D
Naestved2
Hellerup1
L
01.04.262D
Hellerup2
Ishoj1
W
27.03.262D
Hellerup0
F. Amager3
L
21.03.262D
VSK Aarhus4
Hellerup1
L
13.03.262D
Hellerup0
Roskilde2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Denmark 2 Division fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.37 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 13 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Naestved vs Hellerup?
Our selection is 1 — Naestved to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 41%.
What is Naestved's current form?
Naestved have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Hellerup been performing recently?
Hellerup have recorded 1 wins, 0 draws and 9 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Naestved lead with 4 wins versus Hellerup's 4, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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