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WON Tip WON Ulfstind 3-0 Floya
U

Ulfstind

Home
L L L L L
1W 1D 8L ▲ Improving
VS
3-0
F
Floya
Away
L W W W W
6W 3D 1L ▼ Declining
Thursday, 11th June 2026 Selection
2
Backing Floya to win
Ulfstind 20%
Draw 30%
Floya 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob76.3%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-23.3%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #96121CA5
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 12 Jun 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Floya to win
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Ulfstind vs Floya Competition: Norway Div 3 G5 Date: Thursday, 11th June 2026 Pick: 2 (Floya to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (80%) Ticket #96121CA5
Head to Head
Record
1
Ulfstind
1
Draws
2
Floya
4
Meetings
4.8
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Neutral Floya won 2 of 4 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Ulfstind
Metric
Floya
1.7
Goals For / Game
2.5
2.9
Goals Against / Game
1.4
0%
Clean Sheets
10%
1-1-8
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
10%
60%
4.3
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
80%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
U0
0-0 1.4%
0-1 3.9%
0-2 5.2%
0-3 4.7%
0-4 3.2%
0-5 1.7%
U1
1-0 2.2%
1-1 6.0%
1-2 8.1%
1-3 7.3%
1-4 4.9%
1-5 2.6%
U2
2-0 1.7%
2-1 4.6%
2-2 6.3%
2-3 5.6%
2-4 3.8%
2-5 2.1%
U3
3-0 0.9%
3-1 2.4%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 2.9%
3-4 2.0%
3-5 1.1%
U4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.8%
4-5 0.4%
U5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-2(8.1%) 1-3(7.3%) 2-3(5.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip U=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Ulfstind Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Floya Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Ulfstind
Overall
1.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
0.3
Floya
Overall
6.9
Scoring
8.3
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Home Win & BTTS No 2%
Draw & BTTS Yes 18%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 54%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 2%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 54%
Away Win & Under 2.5 13%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.10.25D3
Ulfstind4
Floya2
03.04.25D3
Floya2
Ulfstind0
20.10.24DIV
Ulfstind4
Floya4
28.04.24DIV
Floya3
Ulfstind0
Recent Form
Ulfstind
30.05.26DIV
Skjervoy2
Ulfstind0
L
25.05.26DIV
Ulfstind1
Finnsnes3
L
14.05.26DIV
Ulfstind1
Stromsgodset 23
L
09.05.26DIV
Bossekop2
Ulfstind1
L
02.05.26DIV
Ulfstind3
Kongsvinger 24
L
25.04.26DIV
Skjetten5
Ulfstind3
L
18.04.26DIV
Alta4
Ulfstind0
L
12.04.26DIV
Ulfstind5
Skedsmo2
W
06.04.26DIV
Fauske Sprint3
Ulfstind3
D
26.10.25D3
Skjervoy1
Ulfstind0
L
Floya
30.05.26DIV
Floya2
Skedsmo3
L
23.05.26DIV
Bossekop2
Floya5
W
14.05.26DIV
Floya3
Kongsvinger 21
W
09.05.26DIV
Skjetten1
Floya3
W
02.05.26DIV
Floya2
Harstad1
W
25.04.26DIV
Floya4
Skjervoy1
W
19.04.26DIV
Tromso 22
Floya3
W
11.04.26DIV
Floya0
Alta0
D
06.04.26DIV
Finnsnes2
Floya2
D
26.10.25D3
Floya1
Funnefoss/Vormsund1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Norway Div 3 G5 fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 2, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.31 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 12 Jun 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Ulfstind vs Floya?
Our selection is 2 — Floya to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Ulfstind's current form?
Ulfstind have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches.
How has Floya been performing recently?
Floya have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Ulfstind lead with 1 wins versus Floya's 2, with 1 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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