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WON Tip WON K Lierse SK U21 2-4 Lommel SK U21
K

K Lierse SK U21

Home
D L W L W
4W 1D 5L ▼ Declining
VS
2-4
L
Lommel SK U21
Away
W W D W D
6W 3D 1L ▲ Improving
Friday, 15th May 2026 Selection
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob70.4%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge+5.6%Value detected
Kelly %18.9%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #EF56D156
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 16 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.42
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
K Lierse SK U21 vs Lommel SK U21 Competition: Belgium Pro League U21 Date: Friday, 15th May 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.42 Confidence: 76% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Ticket #EF56D156
Head to Head
Record
2
K Lierse SK U21
1
Draws
4
Lommel SK U21
7
Meetings
3.7
Avg Goals
71%
BTTS
71%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 71% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
K Lierse SK U21
Metric
Lommel SK U21
1.4
Goals For / Game
2.2
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1
40%
Clean Sheets
50%
4-1-5
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
40%
60%
3.1
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
K0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 8.1%
0-3 5.2%
0-4 2.5%
0-5 0.9%
K1
1-0 5.4%
1-1 10.3%
1-2 9.8%
1-3 6.2%
1-4 2.9%
1-5 1.1%
K2
2-0 3.2%
2-1 6.2%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 3.7%
2-4 1.8%
2-5 0.7%
K3
3-0 1.3%
3-1 2.5%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.3%
K4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.7%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
K5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.3%) 1-2(9.8%) 0-1(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip K=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
K Lierse SK U21
Overall
4.3
Scoring
4.7
Defence
4.7
Lommel SK U21
Overall
6.9
Scoring
7.3
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 18%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Away Win & BTTS No 28%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 20%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 30%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
05.12.25RPL
Lommel SK U212
K. Lierse S.K. U211
08.04.24RPL
K. Lierse S.K. U213
Lommel SK U215
10.11.23RPL
Lommel SK U213
K. Lierse S.K. U211
27.02.23RPL
K. Lierse S.K. U214
Lommel SK U213
03.10.22RPL
Lommel SK U212
K. Lierse S.K. U211
11.04.22RPL
K. Lierse S.K. U211
Lommel SK U210
25.10.21RPL
Lommel SK U210
K. Lierse S.K. U210
Recent Form
K Lierse SK U21
08.05.26RPL
Westerlo U212
K. Lierse S.K. U212
D
24.04.26RPL
Beerschot VA U212
K. Lierse S.K. U211
L
10.04.26RPL
RFC Liege U210
K. Lierse S.K. U212
W
13.03.26RPL
K. Lierse S.K. U210
Patro Eisden U211
L
06.03.26RPL
Beveren U210
K. Lierse S.K. U212
W
27.02.26RPL
K. Lierse S.K. U211
OC Charleroi U210
W
20.02.26RPL
RAAL La Louviere U213
K. Lierse S.K. U212
L
30.01.26RPL
K. Lierse S.K. U210
Seraing U212
L
23.01.26RPL
Kortrijk U216
K. Lierse S.K. U211
L
16.01.26RPL
K. Lierse S.K. U213
Francs Borains U210
W
Lommel SK U21
08.05.26RPL
Lommel SK U213
RFC Liege U210
W
24.04.26RPL
OC Charleroi U210
Lommel SK U213
W
10.04.26RPL
Beveren U212
Lommel SK U212
D
03.04.26RPL
Francs Borains U211
Lommel SK U212
W
27.03.26RPL
Lommel SK U210
Patro Eisden U210
D
27.02.26RPL
Lommel SK U210
Seraing U210
D
20.02.26RPL
Kortrijk U214
Lommel SK U212
L
30.01.26RPL
Lommel SK U215
Daring Brussels U211
W
23.01.26RPL
RAAL La Louviere U210
Lommel SK U212
W
16.01.26RPL
Beerschot VA U212
Lommel SK U213
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Belgium Pro League U21 fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is Over 2.5, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.42 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 16 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for K Lierse SK U21 vs Lommel SK U21?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 76%.
What is K Lierse SK U21's current form?
K Lierse SK U21 have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Lommel SK U21 been performing recently?
Lommel SK U21 have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
K Lierse SK U21 lead with 2 wins versus Lommel SK U21's 4, with 1 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 71%.
⚠️
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