Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.
All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.
Professional betting isn’t glamorous. It doesn’t involve secret information or special access to the training ground. It involves doing the same analytical work, consistently, on every fixture you consider backing — and knowing when the price on offer is worth taking and when it isn’t. For this Es game, the work says the price is worth taking, and here’s the full picture of why.
Home side. Their seasonal form — W-W-W-W-W — is publicly available and already baked into the price. The next layer, the one that most casual bettors don’t look at, is the last five home matches. We look at these not just for the results but for the underlying patterns. Have they been creating good quality chances that the scoreline reflects, or have they been grinding out results against the run of play? The quality of their recent home performances tells us whether we’re looking at a team that deserves to be priced where they are or one that’s been getting a bit lucky.
Away side. Season record on the road: L-D-L-W-W. Last five away fixtures. That recent away sample is the most useful data point we have for predicting how this team will perform when they walk into A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn) as the visiting side. Teams carry their recent away momentum — positive or negative — into each successive away game, and it often takes a significant event to break an established pattern.
Head-to-head between these two clubs
Head-to-Head Record:
12.04.26 (ML) Kalju 1 – 1 Levadia
21.09.25 (ML) Kalju 2 – 1 Levadia
21.06.25 (ML) Levadia 3 – 1 Kalju
24.05.25 (CUP) Kalju 3 – 3 Levadia (Pen 4 – 1)
04.05.25 (ML) Kalju 2 – 0 Levadia
30.03.25 (ML) Levadia 2 – 1 Kalju
22.02.25 (SC) Levadia 3 – 2 Kalju
27.10.24 (ML) Kalju 0 – 4 Levadia
25.08.24 (ML) Levadia 3 – 0 Kalju
12.05.24 (ML) Levadia 0 – 0 Kalju
Previous meetings between the same opponents add a layer of contextual insight that goes beyond anything individual form data can provide. Specific tactical tendencies, psychological edges, and historical patterns all live in this number.
Match time: 3:00 pm. Our play: 1 at @@1.37. We’ve put this through the full process and the probability lands at 50,30,20%. That’s the recommendation, backed by everything above. Don’t miss the rest of today’s tips on the site.