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WON Tip WON Dep Pasto W 1-3 Atl Nacional W
D

Dep Pasto W

Home
L L L D L
0W 3D 7L → Steady
VS
1-3
A
Atl Nacional W
Away
W W W L W
8W 0D 2L ▼ Declining
Sunday, 24th May 2026 Selection
2
Backing Atl Nacional W to win
Dep Pasto W 20%
Draw 30%
Atl Nacional W 50%
H Fair Odds5
D Fair Odds3.33
A Fair Odds2
Implied Prob72.5%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-9.5%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #A03B3E0D
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 24 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Atl Nacional W to win
1.38
Atl Nacional W Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Dep Pasto W vs Atl Nacional W Competition: Colombia Liga Women Date: Sunday, 24th May 2026 Pick: 2 (Atl Nacional W to win) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 63% Also: Atl Nacional W Clean Sheet (60%) Ticket #A03B3E0D
Head to Head
Record
0
Dep Pasto W
1
Draws
2
Atl Nacional W
3
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Atl Nacional W won 2 of 3 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Dep Pasto W
Metric
Atl Nacional W
0.7
Goals For / Game
1.7
1.7
Goals Against / Game
0.4
20%
Clean Sheets
60%
0-3-7
W — D — L
8-0-2
Win Rate
0%
80%
2.3
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
D0
0-0 10.5%
0-1 17.9%
0-2 15.2%
0-3 8.6%
0-4 3.7%
0-5 1.3%
D1
1-0 5.8%
1-1 9.9%
1-2 8.4%
1-3 4.8%
1-4 2.0%
1-5 0.7%
D2
2-0 1.6%
2-1 2.7%
2-2 2.3%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.2%
D3
3-0 0.3%
3-1 0.5%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
D4
4-0 0.0%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
D5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(17.9%) 0-2(15.2%) 0-3(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip D=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Dep Pasto W Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Atl Nacional W Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Dep Pasto W
Overall
0.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
4.3
Atl Nacional W
Overall
8.0
Scoring
5.7
Defence
8.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Home Win & BTTS No 0%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Away Win & BTTS No 50%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 0%
Home Win & Under 2.5 0%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 38%
Away Win & Under 2.5 46%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.03.25LW
Atl. Nacional W2
Dep. Pasto0
06.04.24LW
Dep. Pasto W1
Atl. Nacional1
02.03.23LW
Dep. Pasto W0
Atl. Nacional3
Recent Form
Dep Pasto W
18.05.26LW
America de Cali W2
Dep. Pasto W0
L
10.05.26LW
Dep. Pasto W1
Fortaleza W2
L
04.05.26LW
Once Caldas W1
Dep. Pasto W0
L
26.04.26LW
Dep. Pasto W0
Santa Fe W0
D
11.04.26LW
Dep. Pasto W1
Millonarios W2
L
31.03.26LW
Ind. Medellin W3
Dep. Pasto W1
L
22.03.26LW
Dep. Pasto W0
Junior W0
D
18.03.26LW
Bucaramanga W3
Dep. Pasto W1
L
09.03.26LW
Real Santander W1
Dep. Pasto W1
D
01.03.26LW
Dep. Pasto W2
Inter Palmira W3
L
Atl Nacional W
16.05.26LW
Atl. Nacional W1
Once Caldas W0
W
11.05.26LW
Inter Palmira W0
Atl. Nacional W1
W
01.05.26LW
Atl. Nacional W1
Ind. Medellin W0
W
26.04.26LW
Orsomarso W1
Atl. Nacional W0
L
12.04.26LW
Atl. Nacional W5
Real Santander W0
W
30.03.26LW
Junior W1
Atl. Nacional W2
W
21.03.26LW
Atl. Nacional W2
Bucaramanga W0
W
16.03.26LW
America de Cali W1
Atl. Nacional W0
L
10.03.26LW
Atl. Nacional W2
Millonarios W1
W
25.02.26LW
Santa Fe W0
Atl. Nacional W3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Colombia Liga Women fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 2, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.38 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 24 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Dep Pasto W vs Atl Nacional W?
Our selection is 2 — Atl Nacional W to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Dep Pasto W's current form?
Dep Pasto W have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Atl Nacional W been performing recently?
Atl Nacional W have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Dep Pasto W lead with 0 wins versus Atl Nacional W's 2, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
⚠️
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