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WON Tip WON Al Muharraq 1-0 Aali Club
A

Al Muharraq

Home
W W W W W
8W 1D 1L ▼ Declining
VS
1-0
A
Aali Club
Away
W W L L W
6W 0D 4L → Steady
Saturday, 16th May 2026 Selection
1
Backing Al Muharraq to win
Al Muharraq 60%
Draw 20%
Aali Club 20%
H Fair Odds1.67
D Fair Odds5
A Fair Odds5
Implied Prob82%Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge-26%Overpriced
Kelly %0%Suggested bankroll %
TICKET #C6BAD3A2
BD
Written & reviewed by BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst · Last checked 16 May 2026
✓ Data-Driven ✓ Independently Checked
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Muharraq to win
1.22
BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Muharraq vs Aali Club Competition: Bahrain Premier League Date: Saturday, 16th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Muharraq to win) Odds: 1.22 Confidence: 56% Also: BTTS — No (65%) Ticket #C6BAD3A2
Head to Head
Record
0
Al Muharraq
1
Draws
0
Aali Club
1
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Al Muharraq won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Muharraq
Metric
Aali Club
1.8
Goals For / Game
1
0.8
Goals Against / Game
0.8
40%
Clean Sheets
40%
8-1-1
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate
80%
60%
2.2
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 11.1%
0-1 10.0%
0-2 4.5%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 14.4%
1-1 13.0%
1-2 5.8%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 3.8%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 4.1%
3-1 3.7%
3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 1.3%
4-1 1.2%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.4%) 2-0(9.4%) 2-1(8.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Muharraq Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Aali Club Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Muharraq
Overall
8.3
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.3
Aali Club
Overall
6.0
Scoring
3.3
Defence
7.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 36%
Draw & BTTS Yes 1%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 27%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 25%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 1%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 19%
Away Win & Under 2.5 23%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses the Kelly Criterion at your selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
🔎 How we calculate confidence, edge & Kelly %

Our confidence score blends three inputs: the market-implied signal from public odds, the head-to-head record between these two sides, and each team's recent form (weighted by sample size). No single input can move the score more than 18 points from the market signal, which keeps the model grounded.

  • Edge compares our confidence against the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds you enter — a positive number suggests the price may be generous relative to our model.
  • Kelly % is a standard bankroll-management formula, not a guarantee — it sizes a stake relative to perceived edge and odds.
  • Score matrix uses a Poisson distribution built from each side's recent scoring and conceding rates.

All models are statistical estimates, not certainties. Treat every figure on this page as one input into your own decision, not as a promise of an outcome.

📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
10.01.26PL
Aali Club1
Al-Muharraq1
Recent Form
Al Muharraq
11.05.26PL
Al Khalidiyah1
Al-Muharraq2
W
04.05.26PL
Al-Najma1
Al-Muharraq3
W
29.04.26PL
Al-Muharraq1
Al-Budaiya0
W
24.04.26KC
Al-Muharraq2
Al Riffa1
W
16.04.26PL
Al-Hidd0
Al-Muharraq1
W
11.04.26KC
Al-Muharraq2
Al-Ahli Manama1
W
03.04.26PL
Al-Muharraq3
Sitra0
W
18.03.26SC
Al-Muharraq0
Al Khalidiyah3
L
12.03.26PL
Al Riffa1
Al-Muharraq1
D
27.02.26KC
Al-Muharraq3
Al-Shabbab0
W
Aali Club
10.05.26PL
Aali Club2
Al-Budaiya0
W
04.05.26PL
Al-Hidd0
Aali Club1
W
27.04.26PL
Aali Club0
Sitra2
L
17.04.26PL
Al Riffa1
Aali Club0
L
02.04.26PL
Aali Club2
Bahrain SC1
W
14.03.26PL
Malkia0
Aali Club1
W
27.02.26KC
Al Khalidiyah2
Aali Club0
L
19.02.26PL
Aali Club0
Al-Shabbab1
L
12.02.26PL
Al-Ahli Manama1
Aali Club2
W
05.02.26KC
Aali Club2
Al-Najma0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Securing a profitable edge in sports betting demands a surgical look at the data, and this Bahrain Premier League fixture offers the perfect setup for calculated punters. To navigate these markets safely, one must ignore the hype and let the underlying stats dictate the play. The home side’s baseline is our starting point.

Their broader form anchors the odds, but the most actionable intel is found in the short term. Breaking down their recent outings gives us an unvarnished view of their current offensive rhythm and their overall defensive reliability. The away team requires a really balanced assessment.

We must weigh their season-long form against the sudden shifts in their latest games to establish if they are being undervalued by the bookies. Past encounters cannot be ignored either, as they often dictate the tempo of the game. The head-to-head data is essential for identifying tactical dominance or mental hurdles that the odds-makers miss.

Merging this historical context with current momentum provides a robust pick for the match. Taking everything into consideration, the smartest path is clear. Our standout choice is 1, representing the absolute best value, especially when looking at the @1.22 odds on offer.

As the match shifts to kickoff, the work is done. The final score will eventually settle the tickets and validate the numbers. Be sure to check our other daily predictions.

BD
BettingProfessional1x2 Editorial Desk
Senior Football Analyst
Reviews statistical models against historical results before every tip is published. Cross-checks head-to-head and form data with independent sources.
Reviewed on 16 May 2026
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Muharraq vs Aali Club?
Our selection is 1 — Al Muharraq to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Al Muharraq's current form?
Al Muharraq have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Aali Club been performing recently?
Aali Club have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Muharraq lead with 0 wins versus Aali Club's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
⚠️
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